Alaska Senate race odds: Mary Peltola about 75% to unseat Dan Sullivan, as polls show a close race
Democrat Mary Peltola is about a 75% favourite to unseat Republican Senator Dan Sullivan on Kalshi and Polymarket, while polls give her a lead of two to three points. The odds, the polls, ranked-choice voting, the Justice Department’s lawsuit over a same-name candidate and why the result could take until 18 November.
In this article
Mary Peltola is favoured to flip Alaska's Senate seat. Polymarket gives the Democrat and former congresswoman about 74.5% and Kalshi about 76% against Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. The polls show a much tighter race, and Alaska's ranked-choice count means the final answer may not come until 18 November.
Prices on the morning of 24 October 2026.
Alaska Senate odds
| Candidate | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola (D) | 74.5% | 76% (Democratic party) |
| Dan Sullivan (R) | 25.5% | 24–25% (Republican party) |
Polymarket's market has traded about $1.6 million. Live prices: Alaska Senate on Polymarket · on Kalshi · our Alaska Senate page.
The polls: closer than the price
| Average or poll | Peltola | Sullivan |
|---|---|---|
| 270toWin average (2 polls) | 48.5 | 45.0 |
| RealClearPolitics (to 12 Oct) | 49.5 | 47.0 |
| FiftyPlusOne (about 23 Oct) | 49.7 | 47.7 |
| PPP, 14–15 Oct | 48 | 47 |
| Rasmussen, 12–15 Oct | 44 | 42 |
| Alaska Survey Research, 1–3 Oct | 47 | 45 |
A lead of two to three points is real, but Alaska is polled rarely and has missed badly before: in 2020 Sullivan won by almost 13 points after a campaign in which polls showed a single-digit race. That is why some analysts, including us, think a 75% price overstates Peltola's chances.
How Alaska votes
- Top-four primary. All candidates ran in one primary on 18 August: Peltola took 49.5%, Sullivan 41.4%, and a different man named Daniel J. Sullivan took 2.5%.
- Ranked-choice general. Voters rank the four finalists. If no one passes 50% of first choices, the last-placed candidate is eliminated and their votes move to the next choice. The ranked-choice tabulation is set for 18 November, with certification targeted for 25 November.
- On the same ballot: Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal the system and restore closed primaries. A repeal failed by 0.2 points in 2024.
The Justice Department lawsuit
On 22 October, the Justice Department sued to block certification if Sullivan narrowly loses, arguing that voters could confuse him with Daniel J. Sullivan. President Trump said "I'm the one who said do it." Legal experts have dismissed the argument. For traders it adds a tail risk: a contested certification could delay when the markets settle, since both resolve on the official result (how markets resolve).
The candidates and the money
- Mary Peltola won Alaska's House seat in 2022, becoming the first Alaska Native in Congress, and lost it in 2024. She has raised about $32.6 million, with $3.2 million in cash at the end of September.
- Dan Sullivan, a former Marine officer and Alaska attorney general, has held the seat since 2015. He has raised about $13.8 million, with $5.1 million in cash.
Cook and Inside Elections rate the race a toss-up; Sabato's Crystal Ball moved it to leans Democratic in early October.
What it means for the Senate
Alaska is one of the Republican seats Democrats must flip to reach 51 (Senate control odds). Because of the ranked-choice count, it could also be the last seat decided, which matters for the Senate control markets (when the midterms will be called).
Alaska Senate: frequently asked questions
Who is favoured in the Alaska Senate race?
Democrat Mary Peltola, at about 74.5% on Polymarket and 76% on Kalshi.
When will the Alaska Senate result be known?
First results come after polls close at 8 p.m. Alaska time on 3 November. If no candidate passes 50%, the ranked-choice tabulation is on 18 November.
Does Alaska still use ranked-choice voting?
Yes, in 2026. A ballot measure to repeal it is on the same ballot.
Who is Daniel J. Sullivan?
A different candidate with a similar name who took 2.5% in the August primary; the Justice Department cites him in its lawsuit.
