Ohio Senate race odds: Sherrod Brown about 69% to beat Jon Husted in the special election
Democrat Sherrod Brown is about a 69% favourite to win back a Senate seat from Republican Jon Husted in Ohio’s special election, on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Polls give Brown a three-to-four-point lead. The odds, the polls, the money, why there are no debates and what the seat means for Senate control.
In this article
Sherrod Brown is favoured to return to the Senate. Kalshi and Polymarket both give the former Ohio senator about a 69% chance of beating Republican Jon Husted in the special election on 3 November for the seat JD Vance left to become vice president.
Prices on the morning of 24 October 2026.
Ohio Senate odds
| Candidate | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Sherrod Brown (D) | 69% | 69% (bid 68¢, ask 69¢) |
| Jon Husted (R) | 31% | 31–32% |
Polymarket's market has traded about $1.6 million. Its margin market makes Brown by 3–6 points the single most likely result. Live prices: Ohio Senate on Polymarket · on Kalshi · our Ohio Senate page.
What the polls say
The 270toWin average has Brown 48.9%, Husted 44.9% across seven polls; other averages show Brown ahead by three to four and a half points.
Source: Pollsters via 270toWin and Wikipedia, October 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage, 21–22 Oct | 3 pts |
| Fox News, 15–19 Oct | 5 pts |
| Marist, 15–18 Oct | 4 pts |
| Rasmussen, 12–14 Oct | −2 pts |
| NYT/Siena, 22 Sep – 1 Oct | 3 pts |
Why this race is unusual
- A comeback attempt. Brown represented Ohio in the Senate from 2007 to 2025, winning in 2006, 2012 and 2018, then lost his seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024 by 3.6 points (50.1% to 46.5%).
- An appointed incumbent. Governor Mike DeWine appointed Husted, then lieutenant governor, in January 2025. The winner serves the rest of Vance's term, to January 2029.
- No debates. None are planned, so the campaign is being fought almost entirely on television.
Money and ads
Brown's campaign raised $23.1 million in the third quarter against Husted's $4.8 million, but Husted ended September with more cash ($8.9 million to $4.9 million). Total spending on the race has reached about $423 million, and Republican outside groups have outspent Democratic ones by about $105 million, according to AdImpact. The issues: affordability and petrol prices, data centres (71% of Ohioans back a pause in a Bowling Green State University poll) and a ban on stock trading by members of Congress, while Husted casts Brown as a "creature of Washington".
All three major forecasters rate the race a toss-up, more cautious than the markets.
What it means for the Senate
Republicans hold the Senate 53–47, so Democrats need a net gain of four. Ohio is one of the Republican seats markets expect them to flip, alongside North Carolina, Alaska, Texas and Maine (Senate control odds). The same ballot includes the governor's race between Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy (Ohio governor odds).
Election night
Ohio's polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern, among the earliest of the night (when the midterms will be called).
Ohio Senate: frequently asked questions
Who is favoured in the Ohio Senate race?
Democrat Sherrod Brown, at about 69% on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Why is there a Senate election in Ohio in 2026?
It is a special election for the seat JD Vance left when he became vice president; Jon Husted was appointed to it in January 2025.
What do the polls say?
Brown leads by about four points (48.9% to 44.9% in the 270toWin average).
Are there debates?
No debates are planned.
