Iowa Senate race odds: Ashley Hinson about 58% to hold the seat against Josh Turek
Republican Ashley Hinson is a narrow favourite, about 58%, to keep Iowa’s open Senate seat against Democrat Josh Turek on Kalshi and Polymarket, and the polls are tied within two points. The odds, the margin market, the polls, the money and why Iowa is the Republicans’ firewall.
In this article
Iowa's open Senate seat is one of the closest races in the country. Republican Ashley Hinson is a narrow favourite at about 57.5% on Polymarket and 59% on Kalshi against Democrat Josh Turek, with the polls within two points. The seat is open because Senator Joni Ernst announced her retirement in September 2025.
Prices on the morning of 24 October 2026.
Iowa Senate odds
| Candidate | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Ashley Hinson (R) | 57.5% | 59% (bid 58¢, ask 59¢) |
| Josh Turek (D) | 42.5% | 41–42% |
Polymarket's market has traded about $1.1 million. Live prices: Iowa Senate on Polymarket · on Kalshi · our Iowa Senate page.
The margin market: a coin flip at the top
Source: Polymarket Iowa Senate margin market, 24 October 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Hinson 12+ | 2.0% |
| Hinson 9–12 | 3.5% |
| Hinson 6–9 | 2.6% |
| Hinson 3–6 | 16.5% |
| Hinson 0–3 | 30.5% |
| Turek 0–3 | 26.5% |
| Turek 3–6 | 13.4% |
| Turek 6–9 | 4.1% |
| Turek 9–12 | 1.5% |
| Turek 12+ | 3.1% |
Traders put about 57% on a margin of three points or less, more than in any other race in this series. Iowa voted for Trump by about 13 points in 2024, so a close race is itself a sign of the national environment.
What the polls say
The 270toWin average has Hinson 46.4%, Turek 44.8%; other averages range from Hinson +0.8 to Turek +1.2.
| Poll | Dates | Hinson | Turek |
|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 21–22 Oct | 47 | 45 |
| co/efficient (R) | 15–19 Oct | 48 | 45 |
| Trafalgar | 13–15 Oct | 46 | 44 |
| Marist | 8–11 Oct | 45 | 48 |
| Suffolk | 1–4 Oct | 44 | 48 |
| NYT/Siena | 22 Sep – 1 Oct | 48 | 47 |
There is no Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register this year: Ann Selzer stopped election polling after 2024, when her final poll missed by a wide margin.
The candidates and the money
- Ashley Hinson, a former television news anchor, has represented eastern Iowa in the House since 2021 and is endorsed by Trump. She won the 2 June primary with 74%.
- Josh Turek, a state representative from Council Bluffs, is a two-time Paralympic gold medallist in wheelchair basketball. He beat Zach Wahls in the primary with 63%.
Turek has out-raised Hinson (about $20.2 million to $13.5 million), but Hinson ended September with more cash ($6.9 million to $3.6 million). They debated on Iowa PBS on 7 October and on WHO 13 on 13 October, sparring over the Iran war and diesel prices. Cook and Sabato rate the race a toss-up; Inside Elections says it tilts Republican.
Why Iowa is the Republican firewall
Democrats need a net gain of four seats, and markets favour them in five Republican-held races: North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Texas and Maine. Iowa is the Republicans' best chance among the competitive seats they hold: if Democrats fall short in one or two of those five, keeping Iowa could be what saves the majority (Senate control odds; midterm predictions).
Election night
Iowa's polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern (8 p.m. Central). With so many brackets near zero, expect a long night (when the midterms will be called).
Iowa Senate: frequently asked questions
Who is favoured in the Iowa Senate race?
Republican Ashley Hinson, narrowly: about 57.5% on Polymarket and 59% on Kalshi.
What do the polls say?
The race is within two points; the 270toWin average has Hinson 46.4% to Turek 44.8%.
Why is the Iowa Senate seat open?
Senator Joni Ernst announced in September 2025 that she would not run again.
Who is Josh Turek?
A Democratic state representative from Council Bluffs and a two-time Paralympic gold medallist in wheelchair basketball.
