Texas Senate race odds: James Talarico vs Ken Paxton on Polymarket and Kalshi
Prediction markets make Democrat James Talarico about a 68% favourite over Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, even though October polls show a race within two points. The odds, the polls, why the market is more confident than the polling, and what could still move it.
Prediction markets favour Democrat James Talarico to win the Texas Senate race. Polymarket gives him about a 67.5% chance and Kalshi about 68%, against roughly 32–33% for Republican Ken Paxton. The election is on 3 November 2026.
That is a remarkable price in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1988, and it is more confident than the polls, which show a race inside the margin of error.
Prices as of 22 October 2026. Odds move daily; see the live markets below.
Texas Senate odds today
| Candidate | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| James Talarico (Democrat) | 67.5% | 68% (bid 67¢, ask 68¢) |
| Ken Paxton (Republican) | 32.5% | 33% |
Polymarket's market has traded about $5.5 million, one of the largest single Senate races on the site. Live prices: Texas Senate on Polymarket · Texas Senate on Kalshi · our Texas Senate race page.
The candidates
- James Talarico, a state representative and former middle-school teacher from the Austin area, who won the Democratic nomination.
- Ken Paxton, Texas's attorney general since 2015. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and acquitted by the state Senate, and he defeated Senator John Cornyn in the Republican runoff on 26 May 2026.
The seat is open in practice: Cornyn, the incumbent, lost his primary.
What the polls say
| Poll | When | Talarico | Paxton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | 15–19 October | 49% | 49% |
| CBS News | 8–16 October | 51% | 49% |
| University of Houston Hobby School | October | 48% | 46% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 13–14 October | 48% | 49% |
| Marist | 8–11 October | 47% | 45% |
RealClearPolling's average for 5–19 October had Talarico ahead 48.2% to 46.3%, a lead of about 2 points. In the Marist poll, 53% of likely voters expected Paxton to win regardless of whom they supported.
Why is the market more confident than the polls?
A 2-point lead sounds like a coin flip, but it is not quite. If you treat the polling average as unbiased and allow for a typical Senate polling error of 4–5 points, a 2-point lead converts to roughly a 65% chance, close to where the market trades. Traders are also pricing things polls capture poorly: Paxton's legal history, the bruising runoff against Cornyn, and the national environment, in which markets give Democrats about a 91% chance of winning the House (control of Congress odds).
The case for Paxton is the track record. In 2020 the final Texas polling averages understated Republican margins by several points. If that happens again, a two-point Talarico lead disappears, and 33¢ for Paxton would look cheap. That tension, rather than any single poll, is what the price is about. To check your own estimate against it, use the expected value calculator.
Why Texas matters for the Senate
Republicans hold the Senate 53–47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to control it, because Vice President JD Vance breaks 50–50 ties. A Talarico win would be one of the cheapest paths there: Texas is one of five Republican-held seats where markets currently favour the Democrat, alongside North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska and Maine (Maine Senate odds).
Texas Senate odds: frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Texas Senate race?
James Talarico, at about 67.5% on Polymarket and 68% on Kalshi as of 22 October 2026.
What do the polls say?
October polls range from a Paxton lead of 1 point to a Talarico lead of 2; the RealClearPolling average had Talarico up about 2.
When was the last time Texas elected a Democratic senator?
1988.
Why isn't John Cornyn on the ballot?
Ken Paxton beat him in the Republican runoff on 26 May 2026.
Can Texans trade these markets?
Kalshi is available in Texas; see is Kalshi legal in Texas?.
