Alaska Senate race 2026 odds: Peltola vs Sullivan
Prediction markets make Mary Peltola (D) the favourite in the Alaska Senate race, at 74% on Polymarket and 74% on Kalshi. A win would flip the seat from Republicans to Democrats.
Odds updated 1 h ago · election day November 3
DMary Peltola
74%
Polymarket 74% · Kalshi 74%
RDan Sullivan
26%
Polymarket 26% · Kalshi 26%
Democrats 74%Republicans 26%
Race facts
- Office
- U.S. Senate
- Held by
- Republicans
- Chance it flips
- 74%
- Platforms disagree by
- 0 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- DMary Peltola74%74%74%
- RDan Sullivan26%26%26%
More 2026 races
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Mary Peltola (Democratic), at 74% on average across Polymarket (74%) and Kalshi (74%).
Which party holds the seat now?
Republicans. Markets give about a 74% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 17 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.