Mention markets explained: how “will he say it?” contracts work on Kalshi and Polymarket

A mention market asks whether someone will say a particular word. "Will Trump say tariff during his speech tonight?" "Will the CEO say AI on the earnings call?" Each word is its own Yes/No contract that pays $1 if the word is said under the market's rules. They are among the most popular and most argued-over markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, and in September 2026 the CFTC warned exchanges that it sees them as presumptively easy to manipulate.

As of 23 October 2026. Rules differ from market to market; the rules on the market page are the ones that count.

How a mention market works

An event, such as a press conference, groups a list of words or phrases. Each is priced separately (illustrative prices):

Prices move live as the event unfolds: each minute without a word makes "No" more likely, and the price of a word that is said jumps towards $1 within seconds, though official settlement waits for the source the rules name.

Common event types:

• Political speeches, rallies and press briefings, the biggest category, led by the president.
• Earnings calls: whether a chief executive says AI, tariffs or a product name.
• Fed press conferences after each rate decision (Fed decision odds).
• Sports broadcasts: what the commentators say. Kalshi paused these in August 2026 (see below).
• Social media and creator content, mostly on Polymarket.

How mention markets resolve

The fine print decides everything. Four questions to answer before you trade:

1. Who has to say it? On Kalshi's NFL markets only the designated play-by-play and colour commentators counted; Polymarket's broadcast markets have counted anyone on air.
2. What is the source? Kalshi mostly settles on the final published transcript, or on named media outlets; earnings markets use the official investor-relations transcript, usually published within 24 hours, and Fed markets the official transcript. Some markets instead name the live broadcast or stream, which matters if the audio fails.
3. Does a variant count? Some contracts require an exact, letter-for-letter match; others accept plurals or other forms of the root word. "Borders" for "border" or "ICE" inside "ice water" have both caused arguments.
4. When is the window? Does the Q&A count? What if the event is delayed or cancelled? The rules say, and they differ.

On Polymarket, a disputed result goes to the UMA oracle's token-holder vote (UMA oracle explained); on Kalshi the exchange decides under its rulebook (how Kalshi and Polymarket resolve markets).

Famous mention market disputes

• The Coinbase earnings call, October 2025. At the end of the call, chief executive Brian Armstrong read out the words traders had been betting on, settling them all at Yes. About $80,000 was riding on the Kalshi market.
• The shouting rally, December 2025. An attendee at a Trump rally reportedly yelled out words for him to repeat.
• Melania Trump's muted speech, January 2026. The first 30 seconds of a Zoom address were silent on the live stream. She said "Zoom" and "education" in that window, but because the rules named the live stream as the source, Kalshi settled both at No on about $520,000 traded.
• Bernie Sanders in Greensboro, February 2026. Kalshi settled the contracts at No despite video that traders said showed the words, on about $3.6 million of volume, and then changed its contract wording.

The insider problem: the teleprompter case

The person who decides a mention market's outcome is a single speaker, and the people around them often see the script. In July 2026 it emerged that Gabriel Perez, a White House teleprompter operator, had traded Kalshi's presidential mention markets between December 2025 and February 2026, including the State of the Union. Kalshi's surveillance flagged the trades and it referred them to regulators.

On 28 August 2026 the CFTC ordered him to pay a $65,000 civil penalty and give up $107,539 in profits, and banned him from trading for three years. Trading on a script you have seen in advance is insider trading, and exchanges watch for it (insider trading on prediction markets).

Kalshi pauses sports mention markets

In August 2026, as NPR reported a federal review of mention markets, Kalshi removed its sports mention markets, contracts on what announcers say during games, "until further notice". Mention markets on political appearances, earnings calls, press conferences and newscasts stayed open.

What the CFTC's September 2026 advisory says

On 22 September 2026 the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued a staff advisory (Letter 26-27) on contracts that settle on whether a person says a word, attends an event or interacts with someone. Its key line: staff "may view Mention Markets as presumptively readily susceptible to manipulation" and expect "a heightened showing" from any exchange that wants to list them.

It is not a ban. The advisory says a well-designed contract with strong controls can still be listed, and it names the factors staff will look at:

• Obligations on the speaker. Legal, professional or fiduciary duties (a CEO on an earnings call, say) that make gaming the contract costly.
• Exposure to outside pressure. Whether others could get the speaker to say the word by asking a question, paying for a shout-out or running a campaign. Its example: a podcast host who can trivially say a catchphrase.
• Independent verification and public scrutiny. Words said in private settings, by non-public people, or buzzwords with no bearing on the event are red flags.
• Surveillance and controls. Lists of restricted insiders, checks on employment, pop-up confirmations that you have no connection to the event, and monitoring of tell-tale patterns such as an account that only ever trades one speaker's markets, or that was opened just before an event.

For traders this points to fewer obscure markets (podcasts, influencers, private events), more questions when you trade, and tighter limits on contracts tied to a single person.

How to trade mention markets

1. Start from base rates. Read transcripts of the speaker's last ten comparable events and count how often the word came up. If it appeared in 9 of 12 rallies, 75% is a better starting point than gut feeling.
2. Adjust for length and format. A 90-minute rally with Q&A gives far more chances than a 10-minute scripted statement.
3. Watch the clock. Prices on unsaid words decay as the event goes on; buying "No" late can be cheap insurance or a trap if the Q&A is still to come.
4. Read the variant rule before trading plurals, compounds and names.
5. Mind the costs. Mention markets are thin, so spreads are wide; on Polymarket's global site they carry a 0.04 taker rate (Polymarket fees explained).
6. Never trade on access. If you have seen the script, you are the insider the CFTC is looking for.

Example: a word appeared in 9 of the speaker's last 12 rallies (75%), and Yes trades at 60¢. Before costs, buying Yes is worth about 75¢ − 60¢ = 15¢ per contract in expected value; after a 2¢ spread and fees perhaps 12¢. If tonight's event is half the usual length, your estimate, and the edge, should shrink (how to calculate expected value).

Kalshi vs Polymarket mention markets

Mention markets: frequently asked questions

What are mention markets?
Contracts that pay $1 if a named person says a given word or phrase during a defined event, and nothing if they do not.

Are mention markets legal?
They are listed on CFTC-regulated exchanges, but the CFTC said in September 2026 that it sees them as presumptively susceptible to manipulation and wants stronger safeguards.

Does a plural count in a mention market?
It depends on the contract. Some require an exact match; others accept other forms of the word. Read the rules.

Why did Kalshi remove sports mention markets?
It pulled them in August 2026 during a federal review of how easily they can be manipulated.

Can the speaker or their staff trade?
No. Trading with advance knowledge is insider trading; a White House teleprompter operator was fined and banned for it in 2026.

Keep reading

• Insider trading on Kalshi and Polymarket
• How Kalshi and Polymarket markets resolve
• CFTC probe into Iran oil and election trades
• Kalshi review
• Prediction market odds explained