Polymarket removes market on criminal charges in the Cornell case after backlash
Polymarket has taken down a market on whether any of seven men accused in a Cornell University case would face a felony charge, after criticism aimed at the company and its celebrity endorsers. The market had traded more than $450,000. What it asked, what Polymarket said, Kalshi’s response and the rules on markets like it.
In this article
Polymarket has removed a market that let traders bet on whether criminal charges would be brought in a sexual assault case involving Cornell University students. The market asked whether any of seven men accused in the case would be charged with a felony sex crime by 31 January 2027. It had traded more than $450,000 before it was taken down, the Associated Press reported on 20 October.
What happened
- 30 September: the market opened on Polymarket's international platform. It was not available on Polymarket's US app.
- 19 October: Front Office Sports reported on the market. Traders were pricing a "yes" at about 28%, according to RG.org.
- 20 October: Polymarket took the market down.
The case is the subject of a civil lawsuit filed in September by a woman who alleges she was assaulted by members of a fraternity in 2024 and that the university mishandled her complaints. The men deny the allegations, and none has been charged. According to Front Office Sports, the local district attorney declined to bring charges in 2024 and has since reopened the investigation.
What Polymarket said
A Polymarket spokesperson told the AP: "We believe in the wisdom of crowds, have heard them loud and clear, and removed the market." The company said the market had addressed whether the government would take action, "a process that deserves scrutiny, particularly in a case of such serious concern."
Much of the criticism was aimed at Polymarket's celebrity partners. The AP noted that LeBron James has an endorsement deal with the company and that Derek Jeter, Eli Manning and Sue Bird have appeared in its advertising. The advocacy group UltraViolet started a petition naming several of them.
Kalshi: "We would not consider it"
Kalshi, which runs a US exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said it would not have listed the market. "We would not consider it," spokesperson Elisabeth Diana told Front Office Sports. CFTC rules bar exchanges it regulates from listing contracts that involve activity that is unlawful under federal or state law, and in September the agency's staff issued guidance on contracts tied to the conduct of individuals.
Polymarket's international platform is not regulated by the CFTC and lists a much wider range of markets. That gap, between what is allowed on its global site and on regulated US exchanges, is behind several of the legal fights over prediction markets (is Polymarket legal in the US?).
Why it matters
Prediction markets argue that prices on real-world questions produce useful information. Markets on criminal cases test that argument: they can reward people with inside knowledge of an investigation and raise the question of whether anyone could profit from influencing one. A Rutgers researcher quoted by the New York Post made that point; the Post said there was no known evidence of interference in this case.
The episode comes as lawmakers and regulators look more closely at what platforms list, after earlier controversies over insider trading and markets on individuals.
