ADP employment change in Oct 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 21:58 UTCCloses 4 Nov 2026 (in 14 days)
Most likely: Above -25000
All outcomes (7)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above -25000 | 99% | — |
Above 0 | 93% | — |
Above 25000 | 85% | ▲ 3.0 pts |
Above 50000 | 73% | — |
Above 75000 | 49% | ▼ 4.0 pts |
Above 100000 | 14% | — |
Above 125000 | 2% | — |
How this market resolves
If the ADP Employment Change in Oct 2026 is above -25000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “ADP employment change in Oct 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above -25000 as the most likely outcome at 99% (as of 22 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 4 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More economy markets
- KalshiFed decision in Oct 2026?89%Fed maintains rate
- KalshiUS gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.2250
- KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?85%Before Dec 1, 2026
- KalshiUS gas prices this week99%Above 4.1000
- KalshiMichigan gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.3950
- PolymarketHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?97%0 (0 bps)
Latest economy news
- Car buyers are demanding lower prices and better tech. Automakers must deliver both21 Oct 2026
- Trump sued over Canadian tariffs in latest legal challenge20 Oct 2026
- Housing is flashing warning signs just as the Fed weighs more interest rate hikes20 Oct 2026
- SpaceX Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Elon Musk Say?20 Oct 2026
Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.