Near room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 04:25 UTCCloses 2 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Chance of “Yes”
Outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
No | 97% | — |
How this market resolves
If a peer-reviewed paper published in an eligible journal reports the discovery of a material exhibiting the Meissner effect at ambient pressure with a critical temperature of at least 240 K before January 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Near room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price “Yes” at 3% (as of 29 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 2 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More tech & ai markets
- PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?94%December 31
- PolymarketGPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?90%December 31
- PolymarketGemini Carbon released by...?92%December 31
- PolymarketWill Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?>99%Yes
- PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?92%No release by October 31
- PolymarketWhen will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?22%November 16–November 22
Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.