120th Congress: Who will run for Senate Democratic leader?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 11:41 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: Chuck Schumer
All outcomes (7)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Chuck Schumer | 86% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Brian Schatz | 25% | ▲ 8.0 pts |
Chris Van Hollen | 6% | — |
Chris Murphy | 6% | — |
Cory Booker | 6% | — |
Catherine Cortez Masto | 3% | — |
Elizabeth Warren | 3% | — |
How this market resolves
If Chuck Schumer has announced that they will run for Senate Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “120th Congress: Who will run for Senate Democratic leader”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Chuck Schumer as the most likely outcome at 86% (as of 28 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.