Kalshi

What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 04:24 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)

Most likely: 15% or above

97%▲ 29.0 pts in 24h

Price over the last 7 days, in %

All outcomes (6)

Outcome	Chance	24h
15% or above	97%	▲ 29.0 pts
30% or above	96%	▲ 81.0 pts
50% or above	94%	▲ 83.0 pts
10% or above	88%	—
20% or above	86%	▲ 38.0 pts
100% or above	6%	—

How this market resolves

If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027”?

On Kalshi, traders currently price 15% or above as the most likely outcome at 97% (as of 29 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.