Scottish independence referendum called?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 04:23 UTCCloses 2 Jan 2030 (in 39 mo)
Most likely: Before 2030
All outcomes (4)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Before 2030 | 25% | — |
Before 2029 | 10% | — |
Before 2028 | 7% | — |
Before 2027 | <1% | ▼ 1.5 pts |
How this market resolves
If a new Scottish independence referendum sanctioned by the UK government has been announced before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Scottish independence referendum called”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Before 2030 as the most likely outcome at 25% (as of 29 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 2 Jan 2030. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.