CA-05 House Election Winner
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 11:41 UTCCloses 4 Nov 2026 (in 7 days)
Most likely: Tom McClintock (R)
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Tom McClintock (R) | 93% | ▲ 0.5 pts |
Michael Masuda (D) | 6% | ▼ 1.3 pts |
Other | — | — |
A | — | — |
B | — | — |
C | — | — |
D | — | — |
E | — | — |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “CA-05 House Election Winner”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price Tom McClintock (R) as the most likely outcome at 93% (as of 28 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 4 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.