US student loan debt at end of 2026
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 14:42 UTCCloses 5 Feb 2027 (in 3 mo)
Most likely: Above $1.82 trillion
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above $1.82 trillion | 97% | — |
Above $1.84 trillion | 94% | — |
Above $1.88 trillion | 67% | — |
Above $1.86 trillion | 51% | — |
Above $1.90 trillion | 40% | — |
Above $1.92 trillion | 20% | — |
Above $1.94 trillion | 17% | — |
Above $1.96 trillion | 8% | — |
How this market resolves
If the total U.S. student loans outstanding for 2026 Q4 is above $1.82 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve’s G.19 Consumer Credit release, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US student loan debt at end of 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above $1.82 trillion as the most likely outcome at 97% (as of 29 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 5 Feb 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.