US trade deficit for 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 21:23 UTCCloses 28 Feb 2027 (in 4 mo)
Most likely: Above 170 billion
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above 170 billion | 96% | — |
119.6 billion to 119.9 billion | 6% | — |
55 billion to 64.9 billion | 5% | — |
65 billion to 74.9 billion | 5% | — |
95 billion to 104.9 billion | 5% | — |
120 billion to 139.9 billion | 5% | — |
140 billion to 170 billion | 5% | — |
Below 45 billion | 2% | — |
How this market resolves
If US trade deficit for 2026 is above 170 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US trade deficit for 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above 170 billion as the most likely outcome at 96% (as of 1 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 28 Feb 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.