Next James Bond odds: Jack Lowden, Callum Turner and Robert Pattinson in a three-way race on Polymarket and Kalshi
Who will be the new James Bond? A week of screen-test reports has turned the prediction markets upside down. Callum Turner shot to 71% on Polymarket after a tabloid report, then fell back to 28%; Jack Lowden dropped to 12% and is now the favourite again at 35%; Robert Pattinson went from nowhere to 15% on Polymarket and 35% on Kalshi. The latest odds, what has actually been reported, how the markets settle and what Amy Pascal has said about timing.
In this article
Nobody has been named as the next James Bond, but the prediction markets have rarely been busier. Polymarket's market on the next Bond actor has traded about $2.3 million, more than $100,000 of it in the last day. In the past week, reports of final screen tests have sent the leading names up and down by 20 to 50 points.
On the morning of Monday 9 November, Polymarket has Jack Lowden narrowly ahead at 35%, with Callum Turner at 28%, Robert Pattinson at 15% and Josh O'Connor at 12%. Kalshi's market puts Pattinson, Lowden and Turner within six points of each other.
Producer Amy Pascal has said the new 007 will be cast by the end of 2026.
The latest odds
Source: Polymarket market data: Next James Bond actor?
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Jack Lowden | 35.2% |
| Callum Turner | 28.4% |
| Robert Pattinson | 14.6% |
| Josh O'Connor | 12.5% |
| No Bond chosen in 2026 | 6.5% |
| Nicholas Hoult | 1.5% |
| Jack Barton | 1.1% |
| Actor | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Lowden | 35% | 33% |
| Callum Turner | 28% | 29% |
| Robert Pattinson | 15% | 35% |
| Josh O'Connor | 12% | 25% |
| Nicholas Hoult | 1.5% | 10–11% |
| Jacob Elordi | 0.2% | 3–4% |
| Aaron Pierre | — | 3–4% |
| No Bond chosen in 2026 | 6.5% | — |
Morning of 9 November 2026. Sources: Polymarket and Kalshi public market data.
The two markets ask slightly different questions, which is why their numbers differ:
- Polymarket asks who is officially announced as the next Bond by 31 December 2026. Every option is part of one market, so the prices add up to about 100%, and "No Bond chosen" wins if nobody is announced this year.
- Kalshi lists a separate Yes/No market for each actor, asking whether he is cast as the next Bond before 1 January 2030. The markets are not linked, so the prices add up to well over 100%: Pattinson, Lowden, Turner and O'Connor alone come to about 122%.
When the prices of mutually exclusive outcomes add up to more than $1, it is a sign the market is thin or slow to correct, and that some of those prices are too high. Our guide to reading market rules explains why the wording matters.
Live prices: Polymarket's market and Kalshi's.
Five weeks of swings
Source: Polymarket price history (daily, 00:00 UTC, or the latest earlier price; 9 Nov at 08:30 UTC)
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| Jack Lowden | Callum Turner | Josh O'Connor | No Bond chosen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct | 43% | 8.6% | 0.5% | 24.9% |
| 13 Oct | 35.1% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 34% |
| 24 Oct | 37.9% | 21.4% | 11.8% | 18.2% |
| 29 Oct | 37.8% | 21.8% | 8% | 24.3% |
| 2 Nov | 41.6% | 25.4% | 10.8% | 14.1% |
| 3 Nov | 11.6% | 70.9% | 6.4% | 10% |
| 5 Nov | 14.9% | 52.5% | 4% | 18.1% |
| 9 Nov | 35.2% | 28.4% | 12.5% | 6.5% |
- Early October: Lowden, the Slow Horses star, led at about 43%. A quarter of the money was on nobody being cast in 2026.
- Late October: reports of a final shortlist lifted Turner to about 22% and O'Connor to about 12%.
- Friday 30 October: Turner was reported to have screen-tested at Bray Studios, with between three and five actors auditioning that weekend, according to NME.
- Monday 2 November: Roger Friedman of Showbiz411 claimed Turner had landed the role, citing "word on the street". The Sun reported that Turner had stepped down as a director of Twentytwo Films, the company he founded with his wife, Dua Lipa; Dark Horizons noted that he had in fact stepped down in December 2025. By the next morning Turner had jumped to 71% on Polymarket and Lowden had fallen to 12%. A Kalshi post on 5 November put Turner's chance at 63%, and bookmaker William Hill cut his odds from 3/1 to 8/13, according to The Guardian.
- 6–8 November: reports that Robert Pattinson had also tested, and renewed talk of O'Connor and two unnamed actors, pulled Turner back to the 20s. Pattinson's Polymarket option, which started trading on 6 November, reached 15%.
- 8–9 November: Lowden recovered to 35% on Polymarket, up 18 points in a day, and Turner fell 12 points to 28%.
No outlet has reported an official decision. Amazon MGM Studios, which took over creative control of the franchise in 2025, has not announced a casting.
The contenders
Jack Lowden (35% on Polymarket, 33% on Kalshi). The Scottish actor has been near the top of the market for most of the autumn and is reported to be among the final screen tests. Asked about the rumours by GQ, he said: "It's all very flattering… it's nice to be mentioned – for any role – and I'm just not really going to add to the noise." His Slow Horses co-star Gary Oldman has publicly backed him.
Callum Turner (28% and 29%). The favourite with bookmakers for much of the past year, according to NME and World of Reel, and the subject of the most specific reporting: a screen test at Bray Studios and the Showbiz411 claim. Neither has been confirmed.
Robert Pattinson (15% and 35%). The newest name. Reports of a screen test came on 6 November. Kalshi traders rate him much higher than Polymarket traders do, the widest gap between the two platforms on this market.
Josh O'Connor (12% and 25%). Reported to have reached the final stage. An unverified social media post claimed he told a fan he would not be playing Bond; treat that with caution.
Nicholas Hoult, Jacob Elordi, Aaron Pierre and others trade between under 1% and 11% depending on the platform. Elordi was named in an October report of a three-actor shortlist, according to NME, but has since faded.
What we know about the film
- Director: Denis Villeneuve.
- Writer: Steven Knight, creator of Peaky Blinders.
- Producers: Amy Pascal and David Heyman, for Amazon MGM Studios.
- Timing: Pascal has said the new 007 "will be cast by the end of 2026" and that "we are being really, really methodical. I mean, Daniel Craig is a hard act to follow," according to NME. No release date has been announced.
How the markets settle
On Polymarket, the market resolves on the first official announcement of the next Bond actor, from Amazon MGM Studios or a consensus of credible reporting, by 31 December 2026. If nobody is announced by then, it resolves to "No Bond chosen", now at 6.5%. Rumours, screen tests and tabloid reports do not settle it.
On Kalshi, each actor's market resolves Yes if he is cast as the next James Bond before 1 January 2030. A casting announcement in December would settle the leading markets on both platforms at once.
Where the money is
On Polymarket, the most traded option is not an actor at all: about $691,000 has been traded on "No Bond chosen", against about $392,000 on Lowden and $204,000 on Turner. Much of the market's history has been a bet on timing rather than on a name.
On Kalshi the busiest markets are Turner (about 840,000 contracts), Elordi (about 377,000) and Lowden (about 358,000). Elordi was named in an October report of a three-actor shortlist; he now trades at 3–4%.
| Market | Most traded options |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | No Bond chosen ($691k), Lowden ($392k), Turner ($204k), Jack Barton ($99k), O'Connor ($91k) |
| Kalshi | Turner (840k contracts), Elordi (377k), Lowden (358k), Pattinson (327k), O'Connor (280k) |
Volumes to the morning of 9 November 2026. Sources: Polymarket and Kalshi.
How Bond castings have been announced before
The last change of 007 came in October 2005, when Daniel Craig was unveiled at a press event in London after months of rumour about other names. He played the role in five films, ending with No Time to Die in 2021. This is the first Bond casting under Amazon MGM, and the first since the Broccoli family handed creative control to the studio in 2025.
Two features of past castings are relevant to the markets. First, the favourite in the press is not always the actor chosen, so a tabloid report is weak evidence on its own. Second, the announcement itself tends to be a planned event, which means the market is likely to move from the 30s to 100 in a single day rather than drift.
Is there value?
Three points stand out:
- The prices are moving on reports, not facts. Turner's rise to 71% and fall to 28% happened without any official news. Markets like this can overreact in both directions.
- "No Bond chosen" has fallen to 6.5%. That implies a 93.5% chance of an announcement by New Year's Eve. Pascal's comments support an announcement this year, but casting timelines in film often slip.
- Kalshi's prices add up to far more than 100%. If you believe the race is between four actors, buying Yes on all of them on Kalshi would cost well over $1 for a contract that can only pay $1 once. Polymarket's single market is the cleaner place to compare the candidates.
Prices like these say how traders read the reports; they are not inside information. See how prediction market odds work.
Key points
- Polymarket: Lowden 35%, Turner 28%, Pattinson 15%, O'Connor 12%, no Bond in 2026 6.5%.
- Kalshi: Pattinson 35%, Lowden 33%, Turner 29%, O'Connor 25%, in separate markets that add up to more than 100%.
- The swing: Turner rose from about 25% to 71% after a 2 November report, then fell back to 28%.
- Timing: Amy Pascal has said the new 007 will be cast by the end of 2026.
- The film: directed by Denis Villeneuve and written by Steven Knight, for Amazon MGM Studios.
FAQ
Who will be the next James Bond? No actor has been announced. On 9 November 2026, Polymarket's favourite is Jack Lowden at 35%, ahead of Callum Turner at 28%.
Has Callum Turner been cast as James Bond? Not officially. A Showbiz411 report on 2 November claimed he had the role, but Amazon MGM had not announced a decision as of 9 November.
When will the next James Bond be announced? Producer Amy Pascal has said the role will be cast by the end of 2026. Polymarket prices an announcement this year at about 93.5%.
Who is directing the next Bond film? Denis Villeneuve, from a script by Steven Knight.
Who has screen-tested for James Bond? Reports have named Callum Turner (at Bray Studios on 30 October, according to NME), Jack Lowden, Josh O'Connor and Robert Pattinson. Amazon MGM has not confirmed any of them.
What does "No Bond chosen" mean on Polymarket? It pays out if no actor is officially announced as the next Bond by 31 December 2026. It trades at about 6.5%.
Why are the Kalshi and Polymarket odds different? Polymarket runs one market with all the candidates; Kalshi runs a separate market for each actor, with a 2030 deadline, so its prices are not forced to add up to 100%.
Prices as of the morning of 9 November 2026. Sources: Polymarket and Kalshi public market data and rules; reporting by NME, ComingSoon, Dark Horizons, World of Reel, Showbiz411 and The Guardian, 2–6 November 2026. Not betting advice.
