U.S. oil production per day in 2026
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 11:41 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: At least 14.00M bpd
All outcomes (4)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
At least 14.00M bpd | 87% | — |
At least 14.10M bpd | 34% | — |
At least 14.25M bpd | 18% | ▲ 7.0 pts |
At least 14.40M bpd | 10% | — |
How this market resolves
If the U.S. produces at least 14.00 million barrels of oil per day, between Issuance and before January 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “U.S. oil production per day in 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price At least 14.00M bpd as the most likely outcome at 87% (as of 28 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.