Which bills will become law in 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 10:42 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: Protect College Sports Act
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Protect College Sports Act | 36% | ▼ 2.0 pts |
Export-control chip security | 31% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions | 20% | — |
AI-chip export licensing | 19% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
Insulin cost cap | 19% | — |
ADS-B revenue-use restriction | 17% | — |
FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) | 16% | — |
Data center utility cost protection | 15% | — |
How this market resolves
If legislation principally aimed at establishing a federal framework for college sports, including through NIL preemption, antitrust treatment of association rules, athlete-compensation standards, student-athlete protections, or employment-status rules has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Which bills will become law in 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Protect College Sports Act as the most likely outcome at 36% (as of 19 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.