Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 03:21 UTCCloses 1 Dec 2026 (in 39 days)
Most likely: Before December 1, 2026
All outcomes (4)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Before December 1, 2026 | 10% | ▲ 3.0 pts |
Before November 1, 2026 | 8% | ▲ 3.0 pts |
Before October 1, 2026 | 4% | — |
Before September 1, 2026 | <1% | — |
How this market resolves
If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before December 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Before December 1, 2026 as the most likely outcome at 10% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.