World Series 2026: Brewers about 64% to beat the Rays as Game 1 nears
The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays open the World Series in Milwaukee on 23 October. Kalshi and Polymarket make the Brewers roughly 63–64% favourites, close to the sportsbooks. The prices, the schedule and how the markets settle.
The Milwaukee Brewers are favourites to win the 2026 World Series. Polymarket gives them about 63% and Kalshi about 64% against the Tampa Bay Rays, with Game 1 at American Family Field in Milwaukee on Friday, 23 October, at 8 p.m. Eastern.
Prices as of 22 October 2026.
The odds
| Team | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers (NL champions) | 63% | 64% (bid 64.2¢, ask 64.4¢) |
| Tampa Bay Rays (AL champions) | 37% | 36% |
Polymarket's champion market has traded about $45.6 million this season. Live prices: World Series on Polymarket · World Series on Kalshi.
Sportsbooks agree: Game 1 lines had Milwaukee around −162 and Tampa Bay around +134. Converted to probabilities and with the bookmaker's margin removed, that is about a 59% chance of a Brewers win in Game 1 at home, broadly in line with the series price.
The schedule
The series is best of seven. If it goes the distance, Game 7 is on 31 October, which is also when the markets are set to resolve. The Brewers reached the World Series by sweeping the Dodgers; we covered how the market moved through the playoffs in World Series odds.
How these markets settle
Both champion markets pay out on the team that wins the World Series, under each market's rules; a single game's result moves the price but does not settle it. If you trade game by game instead, you are buying a different contract with a different price. Why the two platforms can differ by a point or two: Kalshi vs Polymarket.
