Brewers beat Rays 3–2 in World Series Game 1; markets now give Milwaukee about 73%
Milwaukee held off a ninth-inning Tampa Bay rally to win Game 1 of the World Series 3–2 on 23 October. Polymarket and Kalshi moved the Brewers from about 64% before the series to about 73%. The game, the new prices and what to watch in Game 2.
In this article
The Milwaukee Brewers lead the World Series 1–0. They beat the Tampa Bay Rays 3–2 in Game 1 at American Family Field on Friday, 23 October, surviving a ninth-inning rally. Prediction markets responded by raising Milwaukee's chance of winning the title from about 64% before the series to about 73%.
Prices as of the morning of 24 October 2026.
How Game 1 went
- A fast start. Christian Yelich tripled and William Contreras singled him home as the Brewers took a 2–0 lead in the first inning off Rays starter Nick Martinez.
- Misiorowski held firm. Jacob Misiorowski allowed one run in five innings, and Tampa Bay went 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position.
- A tense ninth. The Rays won a replay challenge to avoid a game-ending double play, and the play became a run-scoring groundout. Trevor Megill then struck out Jonny DeLuca to end it.
The new odds
| Team | Polymarket | Kalshi | Before Game 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 73.4% | 73% (bid 72.4¢, ask 73.2¢) | 63–64% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 26.6% | 27% | 36–37% |
Source: Polymarket, 22 and 24 October 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Before the series | 63% |
| After Game 1 | 73% |
Polymarket's champion market has now traded about $45.8 million. Live prices: World Series on Polymarket · World Series on Kalshi.
What it means
A simple model puts the jump in context: a team priced at 63% before a best-of-seven wins about 56% of individual games, and at that rate a 1–0 lead is worth about 76%. The market's 73% is a little more cautious than that. The series is far from over: Game 2 follows in Milwaukee, then the series moves to Tampa Bay. If it goes seven, Game 7 is on 31 October, when the markets are set to resolve (how markets resolve).
