Heisman odds 2026: Jeremiah Smith leads on Kalshi and Polymarket, with Mensah and Chambliss chasing
Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith is the Heisman favourite at about 42% on Kalshi and Polymarket, ahead of Miami quarterback Darian Mensah at about 24% and Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss at about 14%. The prices, the stats, why sportsbooks are more confident than the markets, and the games that will decide it.
In this article
Jeremiah Smith is the favourite to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy. Kalshi and Polymarket both give the Ohio State receiver about a 42% chance, ahead of Miami quarterback Darian Mensah at about 24% and Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss at about 14%. Nobody else is above 6%.
Prices on the morning of Saturday 24 October 2026; stats through the games of 17 October.
Heisman odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
| Player | School, position | Kalshi | Polymarket | BetMGM (20 Oct) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | Ohio State, WR | 42% | 41.5% | −130 |
| Darian Mensah | Miami, QB | 24% | 23% | +350 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | Ole Miss, QB | 14% | 12% | +700 |
| Malachi Toney | Miami, WR | 6% | 3% | n/a |
| CJ Carr | Notre Dame, QB | 4% | 2% | +1400 |
| Jesse Legree | Oregon State, WR | 4% | n/a | +1800 |
Source: Kalshi Heisman Trophy Winner market
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | 42% |
| Darian Mensah | 24% |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 14% |
| Malachi Toney | 6% |
| CJ Carr | 4% |
| Jesse Legree | 4% |
Polymarket's Heisman market has traded about $300,000, most of it on Smith. Its prices for players outside the top three are thin, with wide gaps between bid and ask, so Kalshi is the better guide down the list. Live prices: Heisman on Kalshi · Heisman on Polymarket.
Sportsbooks are more confident in Smith than the markets
Sportsbooks have Smith odds-on: −125 to −130 at bet365, BetMGM and FanDuel, which works out to about 55–57% before the bookmaker's margin is taken out. Even after removing a typical margin, that is well above the 42% traders pay on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Two things can explain the gap. Prediction markets have no built-in margin, so their prices add up to 100% across the field, and traders there may be weighing the history below, which says receivers rarely win. If you agree with the sportsbooks, Smith "Yes" at 42¢ looks cheap; if you agree with history, the books are overrating him (how to calculate expected value).
The contenders
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State WR (42%)
The favourite all season. Through seven games the junior leads the country with 52 catches, for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns, and Ohio State is 6–1 and No. 3 in the AP poll, with its only loss 24–23 at Texas. The risk is his quarterback: Julian Sayin is out indefinitely with an arm injury, and a freshman, Luke Fahey, is starting. Ohio State has a bye this week, then plays at USC (31 October), Oregon (7 November) and Michigan (28 November).
Darian Mensah, Miami QB (24%)
The quarterback of the No. 1 team. Mensah, who arrived at Miami after a legal fight with Duke over his transfer, has completed 80.8% of his passes for 1,764 yards, 18 touchdowns and 1 interception, and Miami is 6–0. He plays Pittsburgh today, then goes to Notre Dame on 7 November, the biggest game on his schedule.
Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss QB (14%)
The sixth-year senior from Division II Ferris State, who won an extra year of eligibility in court in March and finished eighth in last year's voting. He has 1,676 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, plus 6 rushing touchdowns, for a 5–1 team ranked No. 7. Tonight's game at Texas (7:30 p.m. ET) is his chance to move up; Georgia visits on 7 November.
The long shots
- Malachi Toney, Miami WR (6%): 50 catches, 758 yards and 8 touchdowns; he shares votes with his own quarterback.
- Jesse Legree, Oregon State WR (4%): a true freshman who leads the country with 1,040 yards and 14 touchdowns and has topped 100 yards in every game, but plays for an unranked team.
- CJ Carr, Notre Dame QB (4%): about 1,640 yards, 16 touchdowns and one interception for a 6–1 team, with Miami at home on 7 November.
- Bear Bachmeier, BYU QB (2%): the quarterback of unbeaten, No. 2 BYU, which beat Notre Dame on 17 October; 1,257 passing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns.
Why a receiver is a hard sell
Quarterbacks win the Heisman: last year's winner, Fernando Mendoza of Indiana, was the 39th. Since 2000 only five non-quarterbacks have won: Reggie Bush (2005), Mark Ingram (2009), Derrick Henry (2015), DeVonta Smith (2020, the last pure receiver) and Travis Hunter (2024, a two-way receiver and cornerback). Jeremiah Smith finished sixth in 2025. If he wins, he will be the first pass-catcher to do it since DeVonta Smith.
Key dates and how voting works
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| 7 November | Miami at Notre Dame, Oregon at Ohio State, Georgia at Ole Miss: the biggest Heisman Saturday of the season |
| 3 December | Ballots go out |
| 7 December | Ballots due at 5 p.m. ET; finalists announced that evening |
| 12 December | Ceremony in New York, on ABC |
There are 931 votes: 870 media voters (145 in each of six regions), 60 living former winners and one fan vote. Each ballot ranks three players, worth 3, 2 and 1 points. Both markets settle on the player announced as the winner at the ceremony (how markets resolve).
Heisman odds: frequently asked questions
Who is the Heisman favourite in 2026?
Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith, at about 42% on Kalshi and Polymarket and odds-on at sportsbooks.
What are Darian Mensah's Heisman odds?
About 24% on Kalshi and 23% on Polymarket; around +350 at sportsbooks.
When is the 2026 Heisman ceremony?
Saturday 12 December 2026, in New York, on ABC. Finalists are announced on 7 December.
Can you bet on the Heisman on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi lists a Heisman Trophy winner market for US users; Polymarket's global site lists one too.
When did a wide receiver last win the Heisman?
DeVonta Smith of Alabama in 2020; Travis Hunter won in 2024 as a two-way receiver and cornerback.
