Kalshi

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 11:41 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)

Most likely: Reserve President Rejected

15%

Price over the last 7 days, in %

All outcomes (5)

Outcome	Chance	24h
Reserve President Rejected	15%	—
Dot Plot Omitted	14%	▲ 8.0 pts
Presser Skipped	12%	—
Trimmed Mean Emphasized	11%	—
Reserve President Removed	3%	—

How this market resolves

If the Board of Governors does not approve the reappointment of a Federal Reserve Bank president after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken”?

On Kalshi, traders currently price Reserve President Rejected as the most likely outcome at 15% (as of 28 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.