How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 04:59 UTCCloses 1 Feb 2027 (in 3 mo)
Most likely: At least 240
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
At least 240 | 93% | — |
At least 243 | 89% | — |
At least 246 | 79% | — |
At least 249 | 73% | ▲ 7.0 pts |
At least 252 | 64% | ▲ 13.0 pts |
At least 255 | 38% | ▲ 3.0 pts |
At least 258 | 19% | — |
At least 261 | 8% | — |
How this market resolves
If the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 240 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price At least 240 as the most likely outcome at 93% (as of 11 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Feb 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.