When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 03:21 UTCCloses 1 Apr 2027 (in 5 mo)
Most likely: Before Apr 2027
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Before Apr 2027 | 66% | ▲ 3.0 pts |
Before Mar 2027 | 65% | ▲ 24.0 pts |
Before Feb 2027 | 53% | ▲ 23.0 pts |
Before 2027 | 11% | ▲ 3.0 pts |
Before December | 4% | ▼ 2.0 pts |
Before September | 1% | — |
Before October | 1% | — |
Before November | 1% | — |
How this market resolves
If Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket has launched from the launch pad before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Before Apr 2027 as the most likely outcome at 66% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Apr 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.