When will the first listed Democrat announce a 2028 presidential run?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 09:10 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2028 (in 14 mo)
Most likely: Before Jan 1, 2028
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Before Jan 1, 2028 | 98% | — |
Before Sep 1, 2027 | 98% | — |
Before Jun 1, 2027 | 95% | — |
Before Mar 1, 2027 | 94% | — |
Before Apr 1, 2027 | 94% | — |
Before Feb 1, 2027 | 78% | ▼ 11.0 pts |
Before Jan 1, 2027 | 56% | ▼ 19.0 pts |
Before Dec 1, 2026 | 22% | — |
How this market resolves
If at least one of the listed Democrats announced a run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “When will the first listed Democrat announce a 2028 presidential run”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Before Jan 1, 2028 as the most likely outcome at 98% (as of 12 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2028. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.