Will Trump run for a third term?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 16:12 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2028 (in 15 mo)
Most likely: Before 2028
All outcomes (3)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Before 2028 | 18% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Before Election Day | 16% | ▼ 3.0 pts |
Before 2027 | 8% | ▲ 1.2 pts |
How this market resolves
If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Trump run for a third term”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Before 2028 as the most likely outcome at 18% (as of 20 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2028. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.