Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 18:17 UTCCloses 5 Jan 2027 (in 3 mo)
Most likely: Lana Nusseibeh
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Lana Nusseibeh | 68% | ▲ 55.0 pts |
Rebeca Grynspan | 20% | ▼ 8.0 pts |
Rafael Grossi | 17% | ▼ 7.0 pts |
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett | 10% | ▼ 6.0 pts |
Olara Otunnu | 10% | — |
Mia Mottley | 4% | — |
Amina J. Mohammed | 3% | — |
Michelle Bachelet | 3% | — |
How this market resolves
If Lana Nusseibeh is confirmed as Secretary-General for UN before Jan 5, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Who will be the next UN Secretary-General”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Lana Nusseibeh as the most likely outcome at 68% (as of 21 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 5 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.