Which countries’ U.S. Treasury holdings will increase in 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 11:41 UTCCloses 19 Feb 2027 (in 4 mo)
Most likely: United Kingdom
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
United Kingdom | 96% | — |
UAE | 82% | — |
France | 57% | — |
India | 52% | — |
Brazil | 44% | — |
Canada | 40% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
Saudi Arabia | 40% | — |
South Korea | 38% | — |
How this market resolves
If the U.S. Treasury securities holdings reported for United Kingdom for December 2026 are above the holdings reported for United Kingdom for December 2025 in the same first non-preliminary edition of Table 5 that contains December 2026 data, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Which countries’ U.S. Treasury holdings will increase in 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price United Kingdom as the most likely outcome at 96% (as of 28 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 19 Feb 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.