Will Chris Van Hollen announce a presidential run?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 04:59 UTCCloses 1 May 2027 (in 6 mo)
Most likely: Before May 1, 2027
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Before May 1, 2027 | 50% | — |
Before Jan 1, 2028 | 49% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Before Oct 1, 2027 | 47% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Before Jul 1, 2027 | 46% | — |
Before Jun 1, 2027 | 41% | ▼ 9.0 pts |
Before Apr 1, 2027 | 33% | — |
Before Mar 1, 2027 | 24% | — |
Before Feb 1, 2027 | 19% | ▼ 2.0 pts |
How this market resolves
If Chris Van Hollen has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before May 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Chris Van Hollen announce a presidential run”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Before May 1, 2027 as the most likely outcome at 50% (as of 11 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 May 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.