Kash Patel out by...?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 16:12 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: December 31
All outcomes (2)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
December 31 | 21% | ▲ 2.0 pts |
October 31 | 3% | ▲ 0.1 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Kash Patel out by...”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price December 31 as the most likely outcome at 21% (as of 20 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.