NATO article 5 before 2027?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 21:58 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Chance of “Yes”
Outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | ▲ 0.1 pts |
No | 95% | — |
How this market resolves
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “NATO article 5 before 2027”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price “Yes” at 5% (as of 22 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More elections markets
- PolymarketBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms66%Democrats Sweep
- Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?66%Democrats sweep
- KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?91%Democratic Party
- PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election79%Flávio Bolsonaro
- PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through...?85%October 22
- PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory50%Other
Latest elections news
- NYC high school faces backlash over ‘intifada’ post22 Oct 2026
- Michigan Senate showdown: El-Sayed's odds priced at 69% ahead of final debate22 Oct 2026
- US midterms 2026: What polls and prediction markets indicate about Congress22 Oct 2026
- Prediction markets favor Democrats in midterms. What wagers show21 Oct 2026
Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.