Presidential Election Winner 2028
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 02:00 UTCCloses 8 Nov 2028 (in 25 mo)
Most likely: JD Vance
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
JD Vance | 20% | — |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13% | ▼ 0.2 pts |
Jon Ossoff | 10% | ▲ 0.5 pts |
Gavin Newsom | 10% | ▲ 0.1 pts |
Marco Rubio | 9% | — |
Kamala Harris | 4% | — |
Josh Shapiro | 3% | — |
Pete Buttigieg | 3% | — |
How this market resolves
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Presidential Election Winner 2028”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price JD Vance as the most likely outcome at 20% (as of 23 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 8 Nov 2028. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Latest elections news
Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.