Kalshi

Comprehensive federal AI legislation in 2026?

Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 05:01 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)

Chance of “Yes”

5%▼ 9.0 pts in 24h

Price over the last 7 days, in %

Outcomes

Outcome	Chance	24h
Yes	5%	▼ 9.0 pts
No	95%	—

How this market resolves

If legislation that establishes a multi-issue federal framework for artificial intelligence, combining federal technical standards or testing capacity with transparency, disclosure, or risk-management provisions, regardless of whether those provisions mandate private-sector compliance or promote voluntary guidelines for federal adoption has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Comprehensive federal AI legislation in 2026”?

On Kalshi, traders currently price “Yes” at 5% (as of 25 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.