Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 05:02 UTCCloses 3 Nov 2026 (in 9 days)
Most likely: Above 150
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above 150 | 91% | ▼ 4.0 pts |
Above 160 | 89% | — |
Above 170 | 82% | — |
Above 180 | 66% | — |
Above 185 | 58% | — |
Above 190 | 48% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
Above 195 | 39% | — |
Above 200 | 27% | — |
How this market resolves
If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 150 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above 150 as the most likely outcome at 91% (as of 25 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 3 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.