How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 05:01 UTCCloses 1 Nov 2026 (in 7 days)
Most likely: 2
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
2 | 69% | ▲ 36.0 pts |
25 to 99 | 53% | — |
3 to 9 | 26% | ▼ 11.0 pts |
0 | 21% | — |
1 | 18% | — |
10 to 24 | 2% | ▼ 10.0 pts |
100 to 249 | 2% | — |
Above 249 | 2% | — |
How this market resolves
If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to exactly 2 persons in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price 2 as the most likely outcome at 69% (as of 25 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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