Minnesota Senate race odds: Peggy Flanagan is an 86% favourite over Michele Tafoya, but traders keep buying the long shot

Minnesota's open Senate seat is one of the safer Democratic seats on the 2026 map, but not a certainty. On 16 October 2026, Kalshi priced Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan at 86% to win the 3 November election and Polymarket at 87.5%. Former NBC sportscaster Michele Tafoya, the Republican nominee, was at 12.5–14%.

That makes Minnesota the kind of race that rarely decides Senate control on its own, but could in a big Republican year. Here are the odds, how they have moved and what the market is weighing.

Minnesota Senate odds at a glance

Follow the live prices on Kalshi's Minnesota Senate market or Polymarket's.

A price of 86 cents means traders put the chance of a Flanagan win at about 86%. The two sides add up to slightly more than $1 because each has its own bid and ask; the midpoint is the best single estimate.

How the odds have moved

The striking thing about this market is how little it has moved. Flanagan has mostly traded between about 86% and 93% since May, through the August primary, the start of the general election campaign and the swings in the national Senate market. Her price is now at the low end of that range, down from 93% at the start of August.

That stability stands out against the national picture. Over the same months, the market for Senate control moved from a Republican lean to about 63% for Democrats (live election odds). Minnesota was already priced as a Democratic hold; the national swing changed the odds in the true toss-ups instead.

The candidates

Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) has been Minnesota's lieutenant governor since 2019, serving alongside Governor Tim Walz. A member of the White Earth Nation, she would be the first Native American woman to serve in the US Senate. She won the Democratic nomination in the August primary for the seat Senator Tina Smith is leaving; Smith announced in February 2025 that she would not run again.

Michele Tafoya (Republican) is a Minnesota native best known nationally as NBC's sideline reporter on Sunday Night Football. She left broadcasting in 2022, became active in Republican politics and is running as a first-time candidate.

Neither is an incumbent, which is part of why the race draws more attention than a typical Minnesota Senate contest: open seats are where upsets usually happen.

What Minnesota's history says

Minnesota leans Democratic, but not by as much as its long record suggests:

The pattern is clear. Republicans have come close in Minnesota, but the state has not elected one statewide in twenty years. The market's 86% is roughly what that history implies for an open seat in a year when the national environment favours Democrats.

The same pattern shows up elsewhere on the ballot. Kalshi's market for Minnesota's governor's race priced Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic candidate, at about 95–96% in mid-October, a stronger favourite than Flanagan. Some of the gap is the candidates: Klobuchar has won statewide four times.

Why traders keep buying Tafoya

Here is the odd part. On Kalshi, the Tafoya contract had traded about 1.6 million times by 16 October, against about 0.7 million for Flanagan. The long shot has drawn well over twice as many contracts as the favourite.

That is common in prediction markets, and it does not mean the money is on Tafoya. Three things explain it:

1. Cheap contracts. A Tafoya contract costs about 13 cents, so $100 buys about 770 contracts. The same $100 on Flanagan buys about 116. Volume counts contracts, so long shots rack up more of it per dollar.
2. Both sides of every trade. Every contract bought is also a contract sold. When someone buys Tafoya at 13 cents, someone else is effectively betting on Flanagan at 87. Volume on one side does not show which way the money leans.
3. Long-shot appeal. A 13-cent contract pays about 7.7 times the stake if it wins. Traders like that kind of payout, which is one reason long shots tend to be slightly overpriced across prediction markets.

How Kalshi and Polymarket prices work, and how to read the bid and ask: prediction market odds explained.

What the price means for a trader

At 86 cents, a Flanagan contract returns about 16% on the stake if she wins, a modest reward for tying money up for three weeks. It makes sense only for a trader who thinks her real chance is well above 86%, high enough to cover the fee and the risk of a surprise. A Tafoya contract at 14 cents pays about six times the stake, and makes sense only for someone who thinks the race is closer than the market does.

Most traders in a market like this are not betting on Minnesota alone. They hold it as part of a wider view of the midterms: a trader who expects a Republican wave will buy Tafoya along with Republicans in the closer races, and one who expects a Democratic year will sell her. That is one more reason the Minnesota price tends to move with the national markets rather than on local news.

Kalshi vs Polymarket

Sources: Kalshi and Polymarket public market data.

The two exchanges agree within about two points, as they usually do in the larger election markets. Polymarket's Minnesota market is smaller, so its price can be moved by fewer trades. When the gap gets wider than the fees on both sides, traders with accounts on both platforms close it (prediction market arbitrage).

What would move the odds

For Tafoya's price to rise meaningfully, the market would need to see one or more of these:

• Public polls showing a close race. The market has been steady because nothing has suggested a single-digit contest is turning into a toss-up. A run of polls within the margin of error would change that.
• A national shift towards Republicans. Minnesota moves with the national environment. If the Senate control market swung back towards Republicans, Minnesota would follow, though more slowly than the toss-up states.
• Turnout in the Twin Cities suburbs. The suburbs around Minneapolis and St. Paul decide close Minnesota races. Democratic strength there is what makes the state hard for Republicans.

What would push Flanagan's price back above 90% is simpler: nothing happening. With about two weeks to go, time is on the favourite's side, because every day without news is a day the long shot runs out of chances.

Minnesota in the Senate math

Minnesota matters for control mostly as a firewall. Republicans hold the Senate 53–47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats, and every seat they lose elsewhere raises the bar. Minnesota is one of four Democratic-held seats the party is defending without an incumbent, alongside Michigan, New Hampshire and Illinois, and the market treats it as the third safest of those, behind Illinois and New Hampshire.

In practice, a Tafoya win would almost certainly come in a year when Republicans also win most of the toss-ups. That is why the market prices Minnesota as a long shot even though the state's margin in 2024 was only about four points: upsets in safe-looking states rarely happen alone.

Voting in Minnesota

• Early voting began on 18 September, 46 days before Election Day, and runs until 2 November.
• Same-day registration is allowed at the polls.
• Polls close at 8 p.m. Central Time (9 p.m. ET).
• Turnout is usually among the highest in the country, which makes results less sensitive to small shifts in enthusiasm.

Most Minnesota results are counted on election night, so a clear race should be called within hours of the polls closing.

How the contract settles

Kalshi's market resolves to the winner of the November 2026 general election for the Minnesota Senate seat under its contract rules, and Polymarket's resolves using the official result. If you hold the winning side, each contract pays $1; the other side pays nothing.

You do not have to hold until election night. Both exchanges let you sell a position at the current price at any time, which is how traders lock in a gain or cut a loss before the result.

Key points

• Odds: Peggy Flanagan (D) 86% on Kalshi and 87.5% on Polymarket; Michele Tafoya (R) 12.5–14% (16 October 2026).
• Stability: Flanagan has mostly traded between about 86% and 93% since May.
• History: Minnesota last elected a Republican senator in 2002 and has not elected one statewide since 2006.
• Volume: Tafoya's cheap contracts have drawn well over twice as many trades as Flanagan's, a common long-shot pattern.
• What to watch: close polls or a national swing towards Republicans.

FAQ

Who is favoured in the Minnesota Senate race? Peggy Flanagan, the Democrat, at 86% on Kalshi and 87.5% on Polymarket on 16 October 2026.

Who is Michele Tafoya? The Republican nominee, a former NBC sideline reporter on Sunday Night Football and a Minnesota native running for office for the first time.

Why is the seat open? Senator Tina Smith announced in February 2025 that she would not run for re-election.

When did Minnesota last elect a Republican senator? In 2002, when Norm Coleman won.

Can I bet on the Minnesota Senate race? Kalshi and Polymarket both list it. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange; Polymarket's US exchange is also federally regulated. Which you can use depends on where you live (is Kalshi legal?).

What happens if the race is very close? Minnesota holds a publicly funded recount when a statewide margin is within half a percentage point. The 2008 Senate race between Norm Coleman and Al Franken took about eight months to settle, and contracts on a race like that would stay open until it did.

Prices change constantly; figures are as of 16 October 2026. Sources: Kalshi and Polymarket public market data; Minnesota Secretary of State election results. Not investment advice.