Election Day 2026: Senate odds hold at 75% as record volume pours in before the first polls close
On 3 November Kalshi’s Senate market opened at 77% for Democrats, slipped to 73% at midday and stood at 75% at 6 p.m. ET, while the House sat at 93%. How the day traded, which races moved, how much changed hands and the order in which results arrive tonight.
In this article
The last prices before the results are in. As the first polls closed at 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday 3 November 2026, Kalshi's market on Senate control priced a Democratic majority at 75%. The House market stood at 93.3%. Neither number has moved much since Monday. What changed on Election Day was the amount of money behind them.
This is a snapshot of how the day traded, written before any race has been called.
How the day traded
Source: Kalshi market data, CONTROLS-2026-D, hourly candles (each point is the last trade in the hour ending at that time)
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| Democrats win the Senate | |
|---|---|
| 7am | 77% |
| 8am | 77% |
| 9am | 76% |
| 10am | 76% |
| 11am | 75% |
| 12pm | 73% |
| 1pm | 73% |
| 2pm | 73% |
| 3pm | 73% |
| 4pm | 74% |
| 5pm | 73% |
| 6pm | 75% |
The Senate price opened the day at 77%, a touch higher than Monday afternoon. It drifted lower through the morning and settled around 73% from noon to 5 p.m. In the last hour before the first polls closed it ticked back up to 75%.
That pattern is common on election days. Early in the day there is little new information, only anecdotes about turnout, and prices tend to wander a point or two either way. Real news arrives after the polls close.
The money
Volume is where Election Day stands out. In the hour from 6 to 7 a.m. ET alone, more than 660,000 contracts on the Democratic side of the Senate market changed hands. Between 7 a.m. and 6 p.m. ET, the Democratic and Republican sides of Kalshi's Senate and House control markets together traded more than 20 million contracts.
| Market | Democratic price, 6 p.m. ET | Monday, 4 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Senate control | 75% | 74% |
| House control | 93.3% | 93.8% |
| Democrats hold 53+ Senate seats | 57% | 54% |
| Democrats hold 250+ House seats | 30% | 30% |
Source: Kalshi market data, hourly candles, 2–3 November 2026.
A Kalshi contract pays $1 if it is right. A contract count is therefore a rough measure of how much money is at stake, although each trade costs less than $1 to place: the Democratic Senate contract cost about 75 cents tonight.
Which races moved during the day
| Race | Monday, 4 p.m. ET | Tuesday, 6 p.m. ET | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate (Talarico) | 74% | 75% | +1 |
| Ohio Senate (Brown) | 70% | 72% | +2 |
| Kansas Senate (Hamilton) | 64% | 66% | +2 |
| Michigan Senate (El-Sayed) | 78% | 76% | −2 |
| Maine Senate (Jackson) | 72% | 69% | −3 |
| Alaska Senate (Democrat) | 71% | 68% | −3 |
| Iowa Senate (Turek) | 51% | 49% | −2 |
| South Carolina Senate (Andrews) | 33% | 31% | −2 |
| Nevada governor (Ford) | 74% | 83% | +9 |
| Georgia governor (Bottoms) | 69% | 72% | +3 |
| Texas governor (Hinojosa) | 39% | 34% | −5 |
| Florida governor (Jolly) | 36% | 26% | −10 |
Source: Kalshi market data. Prices are for the Democratic candidate.
Most Senate races barely moved. Two governor's races did. Nevada jumped nine points toward Attorney General Aaron Ford, while Florida fell ten points away from David Jolly, leaving Byron Donalds at about 74%. In Texas, Gina Hinojosa slipped to 34% against Greg Abbott.
Iowa crossed back under 50% for the Democrat, Josh Turek. It is the closest Senate race on the board and a genuine coin flip going into the night.
Polymarket at the close of voting
Polymarket's prices at 6 p.m. ET were close to Kalshi's on almost every race.
| Market | Kalshi, 6 p.m. ET | Polymarket, 6 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Senate: Democrats win | 75% | 74.5% |
| House: Democrats win | 93.3% | 94.5% |
| Texas Senate: Talarico | 75% | 76.5% |
| Michigan Senate: El-Sayed | 76% | 76.5% |
| Ohio Senate: Brown | 72% | 72.5% |
| Maine Senate: Jackson | 69% | 70.5% |
| Kansas Senate: Hamilton | 66% | 64.5% |
| Iowa Senate: Turek | 49% | 51% |
| South Carolina Senate: Andrews | 31% | 30.5% |
| Mississippi Senate: Colom | 13% | 13.5% |
| Nevada governor: Ford | 83% | 82.5% |
| Georgia governor: Bottoms | 72% | 73% |
| Texas governor: Hinojosa | 34% | 38.5% |
| Florida governor: Jolly | 26% | 34.5% |
Sources: Kalshi and Polymarket public market data.
The two notable gaps are both governor's races. Polymarket gave David Jolly 34.5% in Florida against Kalshi's 26%, and Gina Hinojosa 38.5% in Texas against Kalshi's 34%. Gaps of four to eight points are unusual this close to a result. They suggest that Kalshi's traders, who do much more volume in these two markets, sold the Democrats harder during the day.
Iowa is a coin flip on both platforms, with the exchanges on opposite sides of 50%.
The seat-count markets
Kalshi's markets on how many seats each party ends up with are a useful complement to the yes-or-no control markets.
| Democratic Senate seats | Kalshi, 6 p.m. ET |
|---|---|
| Above 52 | 57% |
| 52 | 15% |
| 51 | 6.9% |
| 50 | 6.8% |
| 49 | 5.7% |
| 48 or fewer | 13.4% |
| Democratic House seats | Kalshi, 6 p.m. ET |
|---|---|
| Above 249 | 30% |
| 246–249 | 22% |
| 242–245 | 22% |
| 238–241 | 17% |
| 234–237 | 11% |
| 233 or fewer | about 13% |
Source: Kalshi, KXDSENATESEATS-27 and KXDHOUSESEATS-27. Prices of separate outcomes do not add up to exactly 100%.
The Senate seat market drifted further toward a big Democratic night during the day, with "above 52" rising from 54% on Monday to 57%. In the House, traders put most of the weight between 238 and 249 Democratic seats: a clear majority, but not a landslide.
What a quiet day tells you
It can look strange that prices barely moved on the most important day of the cycle. It is normal.
- Nothing official comes out until polls close. Networks and pollsters keep exit-poll data private until voting ends. Anecdotes about long lines or turnout in one county carry little weight with traders.
- Most of the information is already in the price. Months of polls, fundraising figures and early-vote data have been absorbed. On the day itself there is little new to learn until real votes are counted.
- The volume is positioning. Much of the day's trading is people opening or closing positions before the volatility starts: buying exposure cheaply, or locking in gains from the October run-up.
The order of the night
Results arrive in waves, and the markets will move with them. All times are Eastern.
| Time (ET) | Polls close in | Races to watch |
|---|---|---|
| 7:00 p.m. | Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, most of Florida | Georgia Senate and governor, South Carolina Senate, Florida governor |
| 7:30 p.m. | North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia | North Carolina Senate, Ohio Senate and governor |
| 8:00 p.m. | Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Mississippi, Florida panhandle and more | Maine Senate, Mississippi Senate |
| 9:00 p.m. | Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New York, the rest of Michigan, Kansas and Texas | Texas, Michigan, Kansas and Iowa Senate, Texas governor |
| 10:00 p.m. | Nevada, Montana | Nevada governor |
| 1:00 a.m. | Alaska | Alaska Senate |
Source: state poll-closing times, as compiled in our Election Day 2026 guide.
The early races matter for the Senate market even if they are not close. If North Carolina and Georgia come in strongly for Democrats in the first hour, traders will read it as a sign of the national environment and reprice the races that close later. That is how a Senate price can jump long before Texas or Iowa report.
Trading tips for tonight
- Expect the spread to widen. In a fast hour the gap between the best bid and the best offer can go from one cent to five or more. Check the order book before you click.
- Use limit orders. A market order fills at whatever price is available; a limit order sets the worst price you accept. On a night like this the difference can be several cents per contract.
- Do not chase the first jump. Early returns often come from early and mail votes, which can lean one way and then reverse as Election Day votes are counted. Traders who know the counting order of each state profit from people who do not.
- Know when you can cash out. You do not have to wait for settlement. You can sell a contract at any time while the market is open, at the current bid.
When the markets settle
A market price moving to 99% is not the same as a payout. Kalshi's race markets resolve early once a consensus of media organisations has projected a winner. Its Senate control market can be determined early on media calls too; otherwise it waits for the party of the Senate's president pro tempore on 1 February 2027. Polymarket's markets follow their own written rules and its resolution process.
Close races may not be called tonight. In states that count mailed ballots for days after the election, a market can sit at 90% or higher for a week without paying out. Our guide to how election markets settle covers the rules for each platform, and our explainer on how races get called covers the media side.
How to follow along
- Live prices: our 2026 elections hub tracks the Senate, House and governor markets on both platforms, with the Senate and governors pages for each race.
- Reading the moves: our election-night guide explains what a sudden jump means, why spreads widen and why it pays to use limit orders tonight.
- Background: what the markets looked like on the eve of the vote and one week out.
FAQ
What were the Senate odds when the polls began to close? 75% for Democrats on Kalshi and 74.5% on Polymarket at 6 p.m. ET.
And the House? 93.3% on Kalshi and 94.5% on Polymarket.
Which race is the closest? Iowa's Senate race, at 49% for the Democrat on Kalshi and 51% on Polymarket.
When do the markets pay out? Only when each market's resolution rules are met, usually after a consensus of media calls. A price of 99% is not a payout.
Prices as of 6 p.m. ET on 3 November 2026, before any race was called. Source: Kalshi public market data. Not investment advice.
