2028 Democratic nominee odds: Jon Ossoff jumps to 26% after the midterms as Newsom and Harris slip
The day after the midterms, Kalshi’s market on the 2028 Democratic nomination moved more than at any point this year: Jon Ossoff rose from 15% to 26%, Gavin Newsom fell to 13% and Kamala Harris to 4%. The full board, how it changed overnight, the general-election and party markets, and what the next two years look like.
In this article
The midterms reshuffled the race for 2028 overnight. At 1 p.m. ET on 4 November 2026, the day after Democrats won both chambers of Congress, Kalshi's market on the Democratic presidential nomination priced Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff at 26%, up from 15% at 6 p.m. ET on Election Day. California Governor Gavin Newsom fell to 13%, and former Vice President Kamala Harris to 4%.
This is the biggest one-day move in the market this year. Here is the full board, what changed, and how to think about prices two years before the first primary.
The 2028 Democratic nomination odds
| Candidate | 1 Oct | 3 Nov, 6 p.m. ET | 4 Nov, 1 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 17% | 15% | 26% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| Gavin Newsom | 14% | 16% | 13% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% |
| Andy Beshear | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% |
| Kamala Harris | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.0% |
| James Talarico | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% |
| Mark Kelly | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% |
| J.B. Pritzker | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
| Wes Moore | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Rahm Emanuel | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
Source: Kalshi, KXPRESNOMD-28, closing prices. Prices for separate candidates do not add up to exactly 100%.
Ossoff now leads the field by twelve points. The next two, Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom, are effectively tied at 13–14%. Everyone else is below 5%.
What changed overnight
Source: Kalshi market data, KXPRESNOMD-28, daily and hourly candles
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| Ossoff | Newsom | Ocasio-Cortez | Harris | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug | 15% | 17% | 15% | 9.1% |
| 1 Sep | 16% | 13% | 16% | 8.4% |
| 1 Oct | 17% | 14% | 14% | 7.2% |
| 15 Oct | 15% | 13% | 14% | 8.5% |
| 1 Nov | 15% | 18% | 14% | 6.2% |
| 3 Nov 6pm | 15% | 16% | 14% | 6.5% |
| 4 Nov 1pm | 26% | 13% | 14% | 4% |
For three months the top of the market barely moved. Ossoff, Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez traded between 13% and 18%, swapping the lead. Then, in the hours after the polls closed, Ossoff broke away.
Ossoff won a second term in Georgia on Tuesday. He went into the night as a 97% favourite on Kalshi, so his win was not a surprise. What moved the market was the night around him: Democrats won Senate seats in Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Kansas, Iowa and South Carolina, and traders seem to be rewarding a Southern senator who wins in a state Republicans once owned. Our report on how the markets called the midterms has the full results.
Newsom gave back his pre-election gains. He had risen to 18% on 1 November. He finished Wednesday afternoon at 13%, below where he started October.
Harris fell to a new low. Her price has slid from about 9% in August to 4%. The market's view is that the party's next nominee will come from a new generation.
The midterm winners got a bump. Abdul El-Sayed, who won Michigan's open Senate seat, rose from 1% before the election to 2.5%. James Talarico, the Texas Senate winner, was already trading near 4% and stayed there.
The leading candidates
- Jon Ossoff, 39, Georgia's senior senator, first elected in a January 2021 runoff and re-elected on Tuesday. He leads both the nomination and the presidential market on Kalshi.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, congresswoman from New York and the most prominent figure on the party's left. Her nomination price has been the steadiest of the leaders, at 14–16% since August.
- Gavin Newsom, governor of California, whose second term ends in January 2027. He has been the best-funded and most visible potential candidate this year.
- Pete Buttigieg, former Transportation Secretary, at about 4.6%.
- Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania, re-elected on Tuesday: Kalshi gave him 98% going in. He trades at about 4.6%.
- Andy Beshear, governor of Kentucky, who leaves office after his second term in 2027.
- Kamala Harris, the 2024 nominee, now at 4%.
The prices are not a ranking of who would make the best candidate. They are what traders will pay today for a contract that pays $1 if that person is the nominee in 2028.
The general election and party markets
The nomination is one market. Who wins the White House is another.
| Market | 3 Nov, 6 p.m. ET | 4 Nov, 1 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats win the 2028 presidency | 61% | 66% |
| Jon Ossoff wins the presidency | 14% | 19% |
| J.D. Vance wins the presidency | 19% | 16% |
| Marco Rubio wins the presidency | 11% | 12% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the presidency | 9.5% | 12% |
| Gavin Newsom wins the presidency | 13% | 12% |
Source: Kalshi, KXPRESPARTY-2028 and KXPRESPERSON-28.
Two things stand out. First, the party market moved five points toward the Democrats in a day, to 66%. Midterm results are a noisy guide to presidential elections, but traders read a wave this size as a signal. Second, Ossoff overtook Vice President J.D. Vance as the single most likely next president on Kalshi.
On the Republican side, Vance remains the favourite for the nomination at about 31%, down from 34% before the election. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is at about 23%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis jumped from under 5% to about 20% in the same day, the largest move on the Republican board.
Our 2028 presidential election odds cover both parties; live prices are on the Kalshi presidential market, the Democratic nomination market and the Republican nomination market.
How much money is behind the prices
The 2028 nomination is one of Kalshi's most active long-dated political markets. The three leaders, Ossoff, Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez, have each traded about 10 million contracts or more since the market opened. That depth means the top of the board is hard to move with a single order: Ossoff's 11-point jump on Wednesday reflects a lot of traders changing their minds at once.
Further down the board the picture is different. Candidates priced at 1–3% trade far less, and a few thousand dollars can move them by a point or more. Be careful reading too much into small moves at the bottom of the list.
The Republican side
| Candidate | 3 Nov, 6 p.m. ET | 4 Nov, 1 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 34% | 31% |
| Marco Rubio | 23% | 23% |
| Ron DeSantis | 4.8% | 20% |
| Nikki Haley | 0.4% | 3.7% |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.0% | 3.6% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 1.5% | 3.1% |
| Ted Cruz | 2.1% | 2.7% |
Source: Kalshi, KXPRESNOMR-28.
The Republican board moved almost as much as the Democratic one. Vance is still the favourite, but his price has fallen from about 45% at the start of October. The surge for DeSantis, from under 5% to about 20% in a day, is the largest single move on either side.
Why the midterms move the 2028 markets
A midterm result does not decide a presidential election two years later. But it changes the cast and the story:
- It creates new stars. A senator who wins in a hard state, as Ossoff did in Georgia, becomes a name party donors and activists notice.
- It weakens others. Candidates associated with a losing campaign, or who were absent from a winning one, lose some of their shine.
- It changes what voters think the party needs. A Democratic wave built on wins in Texas, Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina suggests a playbook that favours candidates who can win in Republican-leaning places.
Traders price all of that in quickly, which is why the biggest moves come in the 24 hours after the results.
How to read a 26% favourite
A 26% price means Ossoff is the most likely nominee, and also that there is about a three-in-four chance someone else wins. Being the favourite in a crowded field is not the same as being likely to win. The field is wide and the calendar is long.
- No one has declared. Serious candidates usually announce in 2027. Until then, prices move on elections, speeches, polls and news coverage.
- Early favourites often fade. Long-dated nomination markets reflect name recognition and momentum as much as anything. Prices two years out have a poor record of naming the eventual nominee.
- The money is real but thin at the edges. The top names have traded millions of contracts, but outsiders priced at 1–3% can move several points on small orders.
If you trade these markets, think about time as well as price. A contract bought now ties up money until the nomination is settled in 2028. Our guide to prediction market strategies covers how to think about long-dated positions, and our expected value calculator helps compare a price with your own estimate.
What comes next
- January 2027: the new, Democratic-controlled Congress is sworn in. Senators such as Ossoff and the new class of 2026 will have higher profiles.
- 2027: expect the first candidate announcements, the first primary debates and a fight over the calendar. Kalshi lists a market on whether New Hampshire will schedule its primary before South Carolina.
- Early 2028: the primaries begin.
FAQ
Who is the favourite for the 2028 Democratic nomination? Jon Ossoff, at 26% on Kalshi at 1 p.m. ET on 4 November 2026.
How much did the midterms move the market? Ossoff gained 11 points in less than a day; Newsom lost 3 and Harris 2.5.
Is it too early to bet on 2028? It is early, and prices this far out move a lot. Anyone trading should expect large swings and think about the cost of tying up money for two years.
When do the 2028 primaries start? In early 2028. The order of the early states has not been set yet.
Did the Republican market move too? Yes. J.D. Vance slipped from 34% to about 31% for the Republican nomination, while Ron DeSantis jumped from under 5% to about 20%.
Where can I follow the market? On our pages for the Democratic nomination and the 2028 presidential market.
Which party is favoured to win the 2028 presidency? Democrats, at 66% on Kalshi after the midterms.
Prices as of 1 p.m. ET on 4 November 2026 unless stated. Not investment advice.
