Mississippi and Alaska: the two Senate races still uncalled, why they may take a week and what Kalshi is pricing
Two days after the midterms, Scott Colom leads Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi by about 1,100 votes with thousands of ballots left, and Alaska is still counting. Kalshi prices Colom at 97% and the Alaska Democrat at 94%. The counts, the deadlines, Mississippi’s lack of a recount and what it means for the Senate.
In this article
Democrats have won the Senate, but the size of their majority is still being counted. Two days after the midterms, two races remain uncalled: Mississippi, where Democrat Scott Colom leads Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by roughly a thousand votes, and Alaska, where ballots are still arriving. At 11 a.m. ET on Thursday 5 November 2026, Kalshi priced a Colom win at about 97% and a Democratic win in Alaska at about 94%.
If both go to the Democrats, the party would hold 56 seats. Here is where each count stands, why neither will be settled quickly, and what the markets are saying.
Where the markets stand
Source: Kalshi market data, SENATEMS-26 and SENATEAK-26, hourly candles
Both markets have moved a long way since Tuesday evening. Mississippi was a long shot for Democrats when the polls opened: Kalshi gave Colom 13% at 6 p.m. ET on Election Day. He has led since the early hours of Wednesday.
Mississippi: a lead of about 1,100 votes
The race is one of the closest Senate contests in years.
- Election night. Shortly after midnight on Wednesday, Colom led Hyde-Smith by just 43 votes out of nearly a million cast, with about 97% of the vote counted, the Mississippi Free Press reported, citing the Associated Press. Hinds County, which includes Jackson, paused its count shortly after midnight.
- Wednesday night. ABC News reported that Colom had 49% to Hyde-Smith's 48.9% with 96% of the expected vote in: 464,926 votes to 463,788, a lead of 1,138. Independent Ty Pinkins had about 2.1%.
Source: ABC News, 4 November 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Scott Colom (D) | 49 |
| Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | 48.9 |
| Ty Pinkins (I) | 2.1 |
How close is it?
ABC's Wednesday-night figures add up to about 948,600 votes for the three candidates. A lead of 1,138 votes is about 0.12 percentage points of that total, roughly one vote in every 830. If the 15,000 affidavit ballots mentioned by Colom's campaign were all valid and split the same way as the votes already counted, they would barely move the margin. But affidavit ballots do not always split the same way, and they are often rejected at different rates in different counties. That is why both campaigns are watching the county-by-county processing so closely.
Mississippi does not hold runoffs in federal general elections, the Mississippi Free Press noted, so there will be no second round in December as some Southern states hold. Whoever has the most votes wins, even without a majority.
What is left to count
Three kinds of ballot are still out:
- Mailed absentee ballots. They count if they are postmarked by Election Day and arrive within five business days. The Secretary of State's office puts that deadline at 10 November. Secretary of State Michael Watson said on Wednesday afternoon that about 3,600 mailed ballots were outstanding, ABC reported.
- Affidavit ballots. These are Mississippi's provisional ballots, cast when a voter's eligibility needs checking. Colom's campaign manager said on Tuesday night there could be about 15,000; the Secretary of State's office said it had no definitive number. Counties have ten days to process them.
- Certification. County results are due by 13 November.
So the final margin may not be known for another week. Each county processes its own affidavit ballots, deciding which to accept, and the results trickle in county by county rather than in one statewide update. That is why the lead has moved by hundreds of votes at a time since Tuesday night, and why it could still move again before certification.
No recount, but a challenge is possible
Mississippi has no formal recount process, the Secretary of State's office told ABC News. A candidate cannot request one and none is triggered automatically. After certification a candidate can carry out a "ballot box exam" and go to court if problems are found.
That matters for the market. In states with automatic recounts a close race can drag on for weeks. In Mississippi the timeline is set by certification and any lawsuit that follows.
How the Mississippi market moved
Source: Kalshi market data, SENATEMS-26-D, hourly candles
Show the dataHide the data
| Colom (D) | |
|---|---|
| Tue 7pm | 20% |
| Tue 10pm | 21% |
| Wed 1am | 60% |
| Wed 4am | 80% |
| Wed 7am | 79% |
| Wed 10am | 84% |
| Wed 1pm | 88% |
| Wed 4pm | 92.5% |
| Wed 7pm | 97.4% |
| Wed 10pm | 97.1% |
| Thu 1am | 95.3% |
| Thu 4am | 96.4% |
| Thu 7am | 96.4% |
| Thu 10am | 96.4% |
The market barely reacted when Mississippi's polls closed at 8 p.m. ET. It moved in the early hours of Wednesday, as the count tightened and then tipped to Colom: from about 21% at 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday to 60% by 1 a.m. and 80% by 4 a.m. Through Wednesday the price kept rising as more counties reported, reaching about 97% on Wednesday evening, and it has held in the mid-90s since.
Polymarket's market has followed the same path. It priced Colom at 13.5% before the polls closed, 84% on Wednesday morning and about 97% on Thursday morning.
Why a 2% third party matters
Independent Ty Pinkins won about 2.1% of the vote, roughly 20,000 votes, according to ABC's figures. That is many times the margin between the two main candidates. In a plurality system, a minor candidate's share does not need to be large to decide who comes first; it only needs to come disproportionately from one side.
Alaska: waiting for the mail
Alaska counts slowly by design. Mailed ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive days later and still count, and the state only finishes its tabulation once they are in. In a state of long distances and rural communities, a large share of the vote comes in after polling day.
The race pits Senator Dan Sullivan (R) against Democrat Mary Peltola, the former congresswoman. Peltola led the field in Alaska's open primary in August, with 49.5% against Sullivan's 41.4% in one count reported at the time, and Alaska Public Media noted that November's ballot would include two candidates named Dan Sullivan.
Kalshi's Alaska market, one of the busiest of the cycle, has traded about 25 million contracts, among the most of any Senate race after Texas, Michigan, Mississippi and Maine. Its price for the Democrat rose from 68% at 6 p.m. ET on Election Day to 88% on Wednesday morning and 94% on Thursday.
Polymarket's view
Polymarket's prices agree with Kalshi's. It gave Mary Peltola about 69.5% before the polls closed, about 84.5% on Wednesday morning and about 95% on Thursday morning. Its Alaska market had drawn about $7 million in volume by Thursday.
Why the markets have not paid out
Both markets are priced near certainty, so why have they not resolved?
Kalshi's race markets resolve to the party of the candidate who is sworn in for the term beginning in 2027. They are eligible for an early ("accelerated") determination once a consensus of media organisations projects a winner. Until the major outlets call a race, the market stays open, however lopsided the price.
That has a practical consequence for anyone holding these contracts:
- A 97-cent price is not a 100-cent payout. Buying at 97 cents to collect $1 later earns about 3%, and you carry the risk of a late swing or a legal fight until the race resolves.
- Sellers lock in their gain today. Someone who bought Colom at 13 cents on Tuesday can sell now near 97 cents instead of waiting for a call, and use the money elsewhere while the count drags on.
- Thin markets can still jump. If a county reports an unexpected batch of affidavit ballots, the price can move several points in minutes.
Our guide to how election markets settle explains the rules on both platforms.
What it means for the Senate
Democrats already have a majority without these two seats. The settled races give them and the independents who caucus with them at least 54 seats.
| Scenario | Democratic seats |
|---|---|
| Republicans win both | 54 |
| Democrats win one | 55 |
| Democrats win both | 56 |
The extra seats matter in practice. A larger majority gives the party more room on close votes and on committee ratios. Kalshi's market on the Democratic seat count pays out on 1 February 2027; its top bucket, "above 52", already trades near certainty.
What happens next
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 10 November | Last day for Mississippi mailed ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive |
| 13 November | Deadline for Mississippi counties to certify their results |
| After certification | Mississippi candidates can examine ballot boxes and challenge the result in court |
| 3 January 2027 | The new Congress is sworn in |
| 1 February 2027 | Kalshi's seat-count markets settle on the number of seats each party holds |
Sources: ABC News and the Mississippi Free Press (4 November 2026); Kalshi market rules.
What traders can learn from it
- Late counts can flip a race. Mississippi went from a 13% long shot to a 97% favourite overnight, without a single new poll. Election-night prices reflect the votes counted so far, and the order in which votes are counted matters.
- Uncalled does not mean uncertain. A market can sit at 97% for days because its rules wait for media calls or sworn-in results, not because traders are unsure. The remaining few percent is the price of time and of the risk of a legal fight.
- Small third parties matter in plurality races. A candidate with 2% of the vote can decide a race decided by a tenth of a percentage point.
Background
- How the night unfolded: Democrats win the Senate and the House.
- Before the vote: Election Day trading and the eve of the midterms.
- The races: our Alaska Senate race odds and the live Senate page.
FAQ
Who is winning the Mississippi Senate race? Democrat Scott Colom, who led Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by 1,138 votes on Wednesday night with 96% of the expected vote counted, according to ABC News.
When will Mississippi be decided? Mailed ballots can arrive until 10 November and counties must certify by 13 November, so a final count may take another week.
Is there a recount in Mississippi? There is no formal recount process. A candidate can examine ballot boxes after certification and challenge the result in court.
What about Alaska? Kalshi gives the Democrat, Mary Peltola, about 94% against Senator Dan Sullivan, but the state is still counting mailed ballots.
How many seats could Democrats end up with? Between 54 and 56, depending on these two races.
Prices from Kalshi's public market data as of 11 a.m. ET on 5 November 2026. Vote counts and rules as reported by ABC News (4 November 2026) and the Mississippi Free Press (4 November 2026); Alaska primary figures as reported in August 2026. Not investment advice.
