Florida governor race odds: Byron Donalds is a 68% favourite over David Jolly as Florida votes
On Election Day morning Kalshi gives Republican Byron Donalds about a 68% chance of succeeding Ron DeSantis and Polymarket about 62%, with Democrat David Jolly’s price up sharply since late October. The odds, the polls showing a two-point race, why the market still favours Donalds and what to watch when the polls close.
In this article
- Florida governor odds this morning
- The candidates
- How the odds moved
- What the polls say
- Florida governor race at a glance
- What the late move tells you
- Why the market still favours Donalds
- Florida's other race: the Senate special
- What to watch tonight
- How Florida compares with other close governor's races
- How to trade it
- FAQ
Florida's open governor's race is closer than the state's recent history suggests. At 9 a.m. ET on Election Day, 3 November 2026, Kalshi priced Republican Byron Donalds at about 68% to succeed term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis. Polymarket was more cautious, at about 62.5%. The Democrat, former Republican congressman David Jolly, has climbed from below 20% on both exchanges in late October.
Here is where the odds stand on the morning of the vote, what drove the late move, what the polls say and why the market still leans Republican.
Florida governor odds this morning
| Candidate | Party | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds | Republican | 68% | 62.5% |
| David Jolly | Democrat | 32% | 37.5% |
Prices at 9 a.m. ET on 3 November 2026. Sources: Kalshi (GOVPARTYFL-26), Polymarket (Florida Governor Election Winner).
The two exchanges disagree by about five points this morning, more than in most big races. Kalshi's price for Jolly fell from 38% on Monday evening to 32% early on Tuesday, while Polymarket's rose slightly. Gaps like this usually close within hours as traders who use both platforms buy the cheaper side, so the difference is worth watching through the day. Live prices: Kalshi and Polymarket.
Florida's governor market has drawn real money. On Kalshi it traded about 3 million contracts in October and about 1.3 million more on 1–2 November alone.
The candidates
Byron Donalds is a Republican congressman from southwest Florida and an ally of President Donald Trump, who endorsed him early in the race. He entered the general election with a fundraising advantage, FOX 13 reported.
David Jolly is a former Republican congressman from the Tampa Bay area who left the party and is running as a Democrat. His pitch to voters leans on that history: he has courted independents and moderate Republicans, and the University of North Florida poll suggests it is working, with 11% of registered Republicans saying they would vote for him. He has called for a pause on new data centres in Florida, an issue the UNF poll found voters trusted him on slightly more than Donalds.
The seat is open because Ron DeSantis has served two terms, the limit under Florida's constitution. Both nominees won their primaries in August and have spent the autumn competing for the state's large bloc of voters registered with no party.
How the odds moved
Source: Kalshi (GOVPARTYFL-26-D) daily and hourly candles; Polymarket price history
Show the dataHide the data
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Oct | 24% | 22.5% |
| 15 Oct | 21% | 20.5% |
| 22 Oct | 18% | 19.5% |
| 29 Oct | 30% | 29.5% |
| 30 Oct | 31% | 31.5% |
| 31 Oct | 35% | 34.5% |
| 1 Nov | 38% | 36.5% |
| 2 Nov | 38% | 34.5% |
| 3 Nov | 32% | 37.5% |
For most of October the market treated Florida as safely Republican, in line with the state's results in recent elections and its growing Republican registration edge. Jolly's price drifted from 24% at the start of the month to 18% on 22 October.
Then it doubled. Between 22 October and 1 November Jolly's Kalshi price rose from 18% to 38%. The move began the week a University of North Florida poll showed the race essentially tied, and it continued after a St. Pete Polls survey on 28 October found the same.
What the polls say
| Poll | Field dates | Sample | Donalds | Jolly |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | released 28 Oct | likely voters, ±3.2 | 48% | 46% |
| University of North Florida | 12–19 Oct | 1,471 likely voters, ±2.81 | 49% | 47% |
| Change Research | 8–10 Oct | — | 47% | 47% |
| Stetson University | 1–9 Oct | — | 52% | 41% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (Donalds campaign) | — | — | 49% | 43% |
Sources: Political Wire (28 October 2026) for St. Pete Polls; FOX 13 Tampa Bay (22 October 2026) for UNF; other polls as compiled in public polling round-ups in October 2026.
The University of North Florida poll, the largest of the group, is the one that changed minds. Its details:
- Donalds' lead shrank from five points in July to two. UNF had Donalds 49%, Jolly 47%, with 4% undecided.
- Jolly wins crossover votes. 11% of registered Republicans backed Jolly, against 5% of registered Democrats for Donalds. Voters with no party or a minor party favoured Jolly 55% to 38%.
- Donalds' voters are more enthusiastic. 77% of Donalds' supporters said they strongly backed him, against 67% of Jolly's.
- The issues are split. Voters trusted Jolly slightly more on affordability and Donalds more on property insurance.
FOX 13 also reported that national Democrats gave Jolly $1 million and that Hillary Clinton campaigned with him in Hollywood, Florida, while Donalds holds a fundraising advantage.
Florida governor race at a glance
Source: Kalshi and Polymarket market data; University of North Florida poll (12–19 October 2026)
What the late move tells you
The October chart shows how prediction markets absorb polls. For three weeks, traders ignored the idea of a close race. Two independent polls in a week, UNF and St. Pete Polls, both showing Donalds ahead by only two points, changed that: Jolly's price doubled in ten days.
It did not go further. Even at its peak of 38% on 1 November, the market never treated Florida as a toss-up. And on Election Day morning Kalshi's traders sold Jolly back down to 32%. That is the market saying it believes the polls are close but expects the Republican turnout advantage to show up when the votes are counted.
Why the market still favours Donalds
The polls show a race within two points. The market gives Donalds about two chances in three. Why?
- Florida's recent record. Republicans have won Florida's statewide races comfortably in recent cycles, and the state's voter registration now leans Republican. Traders price that history in.
- Turnout. St. Pete Polls' headline said Donalds leads "as long as Republicans show up." The enthusiasm gap in the UNF poll points the same way: a Republican lead in a close poll tends to hold if more of his voters turn out.
- Polls have missed in Florida before. Markets do not assume a tied poll means a coin flip. A 2-point lead in a state where the polling has erred toward Democrats in some recent elections is worth more than a 2-point lead elsewhere.
Democrats have not won a Florida governor's race since 1994, and DeSantis won re-election in 2022 by about 19 points. Against that record, a two-point poll deficit looks like an opportunity for Jolly, but the market wants to see it confirmed by votes before pricing him as an equal.
None of that makes Donalds safe. A 32–38% price for Jolly is a serious chance, far higher than the market gave any Florida Democrat earlier in the year.
Florida's other race: the Senate special
Florida also elects a senator for the remaining years of Marco Rubio's term. Kalshi gives Senator Ashley Moody (R) about 85% against Democrat Angie Nixon. The gap between the two Florida races, more than 15 points in the Democrats' chances, suggests some Florida voters plan to split their tickets.
What to watch tonight
- Poll closing times. Most of Florida closes at 7 p.m. ET; the western panhandle, on Central Time, closes at 8 p.m. ET. Florida counts quickly, and its early-vote and mail-vote totals usually arrive within the first hour.
- Miami-Dade. Republicans won the county in 2024. A Jolly margin there would be a sign of a strong night for him.
- The I-4 corridor. Orange (Orlando), Hillsborough (Tampa), Pinellas and Duval (Jacksonville) decide statewide races in a close year.
- Market moves. Because Florida reports early, its governor market may be among the first to swing hard after 7 p.m. ET. The national Senate and House markets will be watching.
Our Election Day 2026 guide has the full poll-closing schedule, and our election-night guide explains how to read the prices as results arrive.
How Florida compares with other close governor's races
Florida is one of a handful of governor's races where the Democrat goes into Election Day as a clear but beatable underdog.
| State | Democrat | Kalshi, Democrat wins |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | Gina Hinojosa | 34–39% |
| Florida | David Jolly | 32% |
| Vermont | Amanda Janoo | about 33% |
| Nebraska | Lynne Walz | about 10% |
Kalshi prices on 2–3 November 2026.
If the national wave that the Senate market is pricing turns out to be larger than expected, races like these are where it would show. If the polls are right and Republicans turn out, Donalds should hold Florida.
How to trade it
Kalshi and Polymarket US both operate in Florida: see is Kalshi legal in Florida? and is Polymarket legal in Florida?. A Jolly contract costs about 32 cents on Kalshi and 37.5 cents on Polymarket this morning and pays $1 if he wins.
- Check both exchanges. With a five-point gap, the same bet is cheaper on one platform than the other. Our Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison shows live gaps.
- Mind the fees and spreads. Fees apply on both platforms (fee guide); spreads widen in fast markets, so use limit orders.
- Settlement. Kalshi resolves governor markets to the party of the candidate sworn in, with an early determination once media organisations call the race (how election markets settle).
FAQ
Who is favoured to win the Florida governor's race? Byron Donalds, at about 68% on Kalshi and 62.5% on Polymarket at 9 a.m. ET on 3 November 2026.
Why is the governor's seat open? Ron DeSantis is term-limited after two terms.
What do the latest polls show? A close race: St. Pete Polls had Donalds ahead 48–46, and the University of North Florida had him ahead 49–47.
What does a 32% price mean? That traders see roughly a one-in-three chance of a Jolly win. A $1 contract on Jolly costs about 32 cents on Kalshi.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree? Each exchange has its own traders and order book. Gaps of a few points can open on busy days and usually close as traders buy on the cheaper exchange and sell on the dearer one.
Is Jolly a Democrat? Yes. He served in Congress as a Republican and is now the Democratic nominee.
When do Florida's polls close? At 7 p.m. ET in most of the state and 8 p.m. ET in the western panhandle.
Where can I follow the race? On our governors page.
Prices as of 9 a.m. ET on 3 November 2026. Not investment advice.
