How to follow election night on Kalshi and Polymarket: what moves the prices, when, and how to trade it safely

On election night, prediction markets are the fastest public read on who is winning, and the busiest few hours of the year for most election traders. Prices react to every county that reports, usually long before television networks project a winner. That makes them useful to watch and tricky to trade. This guide explains what to look at, in what order, and how to avoid the most common mistakes.

It is written for the 3 November 2026 midterms, but the same principles apply to any election night.

The markets worth watching

Kalshi and Polymarket list hundreds of election markets. On the night, a handful carry most of the information.

The chamber markets react to everything. A good result for one party in an early state moves the national price because traders read it as evidence about the national mood. Individual race markets react mostly to their own state's count.

The order of the night

Results arrive as polls close, from east to west. All times are Eastern on 3 November 2026.

Source: state poll-closing times, as listed in our Election Day 2026 guide.

The first hour matters most for the national markets. Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio all report between 7 and 8 p.m. ET. If one party is clearly outperforming expectations there, the Senate and House prices will move sharply before the battleground states further west have counted anything.

Why prices move before the networks call a race

A television call needs very high confidence that the trailing candidate cannot catch up. A market price only needs traders to update their estimate.

Imagine a race priced at 70% before the polls close. After a third of the vote is counted, the favourite is running ahead of expectations in the counties that matter. Nobody can call the race yet, but the chance of an upset has fallen. Traders bid the price to 85%, then 92%, then 97%, as more counties come in. By the time a network projects the winner, the market has often been above 95% for an hour or more.

That pattern was visible in the 2024 presidential election. On Polymarket, the price of a Trump win was about 58% at 7 p.m. ET on election night, 71% at 9 p.m., 92% by 11 p.m. and 97% by midnight. The Associated Press called the race the next morning.

Reading early returns: the counting order trap

The single most common mistake on election night is reading too much into the first numbers.

Each state counts its ballots in a different order:

• Some report early and mail votes first. In states that process mail ballots before Election Day, the first batch of results often contains those votes. Depending on who voted by mail, the early numbers can lean one way and then drift back.
• Some count mail votes last. In states that cannot begin processing mail ballots until Election Day, in-person votes may be reported first and mail ballots later. In 2020 this produced a well-known pattern in some states where one party led early and the other caught up as mail ballots were counted.
• Big cities can report late. Large urban counties often take longer to count. A lead built on rural counties can shrink when the cities report.

Experienced traders know the counting order of each state and price it in. Newcomers buy the candidate who is "ahead" in the first 10% of the count and sell when the lead shrinks. Before you trade a race, find out which votes the state reports first.

What happens to the order book

Election night is the most volatile session prediction markets see. Expect three things:

1. Wider spreads. On a quiet day, the gap between the best bid and the best ask in a major market might be one cent. In a fast hour it can widen to several cents as market makers pull back.
2. Thin books at the edges. When a price moves from 70 to 95, the orders that were resting at 80 and 90 get filled or cancelled. There may be little liquidity left between the last trade and the new price.
3. Price gaps between platforms. Kalshi and Polymarket usually track each other within a point or two. On the night, gaps can briefly open as each platform's traders react at different speeds.

Our guides to limit orders vs market orders and slippage, volume and spreads explain how to trade when the book thins out.

How to trade it safely

• Use limit orders, not market orders. A market order fills at whatever price is available, and on election night that can be several cents worse than the price you saw. A limit order fills only at your price or better. See limit orders vs market orders.
• Size your trades for volatility. A position that would be sensible on a quiet Tuesday can lose half its value in ten minutes on election night. Decide in advance how much you are willing to lose.
• Compare prices across platforms. If Polymarket and Kalshi disagree by several points on the same race, one of them is the cheaper place to buy. Our comparison page shows live gaps.
• Do not trade on rumours. Social media fills up with screenshots, fake results and "insider" claims. Prices move on verified county results; trading on a rumour usually means buying from someone better informed.
• Remember the fees. Both platforms charge trading fees, which matter more if you trade in and out many times. Our fee comparison has the numbers.

A sample election-night plan

• 6 p.m. ET: note the last prices before results: Senate control, House control and the races you care about. These are your baseline.
• 7 p.m.: Georgia and South Carolina close. Watch whether the Democratic or Republican candidates are beating their pre-election prices in the counties that report first, and how the Senate control price reacts.
• 7:30 p.m.: North Carolina and Ohio. A strong showing for either party here is usually the first big move in the national markets.
• 8 p.m.: Maine, Pennsylvania, Mississippi and a dozen more. By now the national markets have usually picked a direction.
• 9 p.m.: Texas, Michigan, Kansas, Iowa, Wisconsin and Arizona finish closing. Many of the night's closest races report from here.
• After midnight: Hawaii and Alaska. Close races in the West can stay open for days.

Write down why you expect a price to move before you trade, and what would prove you wrong. It is easy, at 10 p.m. with prices jumping, to trade on excitement rather than on a view.

Cashing out before a race is called

You do not have to wait for a market to settle to take a profit or cut a loss. While a market is open you can sell your contracts at the current bid.

That matters for two reasons:

• Settlement can take days. Close races may not be called on the night, and each platform has its own rules about when a market resolves. Our guide to how Kalshi and Polymarket markets resolve covers the details.
• The last few cents are the riskiest. Buying a contract at 97 cents to collect $1 earns about 3%, while carrying the risk of a recount, a late swing or a legal challenge. Many traders prefer to sell at 95–97 cents and move on.

Where to watch

• Our 2026 elections hub shows the chamber markets and every competitive race on both platforms side by side.
• The individual market pages for Senate control and House control show the order book and recent trades.
• For background, our 2026 midterm predictions explain how the markets got here, and our accuracy study shows how well-calibrated prediction markets have been over thousands of resolved questions.

FAQ

When do the first results come in? The first polls close at 6 p.m. ET in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. The first Senate races to report are Georgia and South Carolina, at 7 p.m. ET.

Why does a market jump when nothing has been called? Because traders update on partial results. A market price is an estimate of the chance of each outcome, not a call.

Is it legal to trade election markets? Kalshi has offered election contracts in the US since a 2024 court ruling, and Polymarket US is regulated by the CFTC; state rules vary for some products. See is Kalshi legal? and how to use Polymarket in the US.

Can I sell before a race is called? Yes. While a market is open you can sell at the current bid.

Do the two platforms move together? Usually within a point or two. On the night, gaps can briefly widen as each platform's traders react at different speeds.

What is the most common mistake? Trading on the first few percent of the count without knowing which votes the state reports first.

Not investment advice. Prediction markets carry the risk of losing your entire stake.