How to bet on the NFL on Kalshi: game winners, spreads, totals, touchdown props and futures explained

Kalshi is one of the biggest places to trade the NFL in the US, and it does not work like a sportsbook. Instead of betting against the house at odds it sets, you buy and sell contracts with other traders. Each contract pays $1 if its outcome happens, so its price is the market's estimate of the chance it happens.

This guide covers the main NFL markets on Kalshi, how to read their prices, what you pay in fees and a worked example from Week 10 of the 2026 season.

What you can trade

Kalshi lists hundreds of NFL market series. The main ones:

Source: Kalshi's NFL market listings, November 2026.

The game, spread and total markets are the busiest. A big Sunday game can trade tens of millions of contracts: on 1 November, the Kansas City–Denver game traded about 50 million contracts across its two sides, and the Chicago–Seattle game on 2 November about 53 million.

How to read a Kalshi price

A price in cents is a probability. A contract at 62 cents pays $1 if it wins, so the market sees roughly a 62% chance. Your profit if it wins is 38 cents per contract, before fees.

Sportsbook odds can be converted the same way:

A negative moneyline −X converts to X ÷ (X + 100); a positive one +X to 100 ÷ (X + 100). Sportsbook probabilities usually add up to more than 100% across both sides because the book builds in its margin. On Kalshi the margin shows up as the spread between bid and ask instead.

Our odds explainer goes through the conversions in more detail.

Buying Yes and No

Every Kalshi market has two sides. On a game-winner market, each team has its own contract. On a spread or total, you can buy Yes (the team covers, the game goes over) or No (it does not).

On Kalshi, buying No at 30 cents is the same position as selling Yes at 70 cents. You can also sell a contract you hold at any time before the game ends, at the current bid. That makes it possible to lock in a profit at half-time or cut a loss early, something most sportsbooks only offer through a cash-out price they set.

A worked example: Thursday Night Football

On the morning of 4 November 2026, Kalshi's market for Thursday's Jacksonville–Baltimore game looked like this:

Source: Kalshi market data, KXNFLGAME-26NOV05JACBAL, hourly candles, 4 November 2026.

Reading it:

• The market made Jacksonville an 81–82% favourite. That is roughly a −450 favourite in sportsbook terms.
• The spread is one cent on each side. Buying Jacksonville costs the 82-cent ask; selling it would get you the 81-cent bid.
• Baltimore at 19 cents pays $1 if the Ravens win: 81 cents profit per contract, before fees, about 4.3 times your stake.

Suppose you buy 100 Jacksonville contracts at 82 cents. You pay $82, plus a taker fee of 0.07 × 100 × 0.82 × 0.18 ≈ $1.04, rounded up to the cent. If Jacksonville wins you receive $100 at settlement, with no fee to collect it. Your profit is about $16.96. If they lose, you lose $83.04.

Fees

Kalshi charges a fee when your order fills, not when the market settles.

• Takers (orders that fill immediately against the book) pay 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the next cent. That peaks at 1.75 cents per contract at a 50-cent price and falls toward zero near 1 or 99 cents.
• Makers (orders that rest on the book until someone trades against them) pay a quarter of that rate, 0.0175, on markets with maker fees, and nothing on others. Kalshi's main NFL game, spread, total and touchdown markets are among those that charge maker fees.

Our Kalshi fees guide has a full table. The practical point: if you are not in a hurry, a limit order that rests on the book costs less and avoids paying the spread.

Spreads and totals: how the lines work

Kalshi lists several lines for each game instead of one. For the Jacksonville–Baltimore game, there were contracts on "Baltimore wins by over 7.5 points", "over 9.5", "over 10.5" and so on, and the same in the other direction. Each line is a separate market with its own price.

That lets you pick the line you want instead of taking a single number set by a bookmaker. The trade-off is liquidity: the lines nearest the expected margin are busy; lines far from it are thin and can have wide spreads.

Futures and awards

Season-long markets work the same way as game markets but take months to settle. Kalshi lists:

• The Super Bowl winner, with a contract for every team (Super Bowl odds);
• conference and division winners;
• playoff qualifiers, asking whether each team makes the playoffs (NFL playoff odds);
• awards, including the AP's Most Valuable Player (NFL MVP odds).

The main difference is time. Money in a Super Bowl contract is tied up until February. You can sell at any time, but long-dated markets often have wider spreads than game markets.

Kalshi vs a sportsbook

Neither is better in every case. Sportsbooks offer promotions and a wider range of same-game parlays; Kalshi offers the ability to trade in and out and, often, lower costs on popular markets. Many experienced bettors use both, and compare prices before every trade, much as they would compare odds between two sportsbooks.

Where Kalshi's NFL markets are available

Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and offers sports contracts nationally, but several states have challenged them in court and some have won temporary orders. Availability can change at short notice and the app checks your location. See our guides to whether Kalshi is legal and the legal status of sports betting by state.

Polymarket US also lists NFL games. Comparing prices on both platforms can get you a better price on the same outcome (Polymarket vs Kalshi).

Tips for NFL trading on Kalshi

• Use limit orders. Especially on props and far-off spread lines, the spread can be several cents.
• Watch the injury news. Prices react within seconds to inactive lists, usually released about 90 minutes before kickoff. A starting quarterback ruled out can move a game-winner price by ten points or more, and the spread and total markets move with it.
• Think in probabilities. If you think a team has a 70% chance and the market says 62%, that is a trade; if you think 60%, it is not. Our expected value calculator does the arithmetic, fees included.
• Be careful with parlays. Kalshi offers combinations, but each leg adds uncertainty and the fees add up (parlays on Kalshi and Polymarket). A four-leg combination of 60% favourites wins only about 13% of the time.
• Track your results. Prediction market profits are taxable; keep records (Kalshi taxes).

FAQ

Can you bet on the NFL on Kalshi? Yes. Kalshi lists game winners, spreads, totals, player props and season futures, in states where its sports contracts are available.

How do Kalshi prices compare with sportsbook odds? A Kalshi price in cents is an implied probability. A 60-cent contract is roughly a −150 favourite.

What does Kalshi charge? Takers pay 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), at most 1.75 cents per contract. Makers pay a quarter of that on some markets and nothing on others.

Can I cash out before the game ends? Yes. You can sell your contracts at the current bid while the market is open.

Is Kalshi a sportsbook? No. It is a CFTC-regulated exchange where you trade event contracts with other users. Several states dispute how its sports contracts should be regulated.

Where can I see NFL prices? On our sports markets page, with season-long markets on our Super Bowl odds and NFL playoff odds pages.

Prices quoted for illustration from Kalshi's public data on 4 November 2026. Sports contracts are not available in every state. Not investment advice.