How election markets settle on Kalshi and Polymarket: media calls, recounts, certification and runoffs

An election market does not pay out when the price reaches 99%. It pays out when the platform's written rules say the outcome is known. Those rules differ between Kalshi and Polymarket, and between kinds of market. On a close night, the difference decides whether you get paid in an hour or in a month.

This guide explains how each platform settles election markets, using the rules of the 2026 midterm markets as examples.

The short version

Sources: market rules published on Kalshi and Polymarket for the 2026 midterm markets.

How Kalshi settles race markets

Each Kalshi Senate race market asks which party wins the seat. The rule for the Texas Senate market is typical: it resolves Yes for the Republican contract "if a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027", and the same for the Democratic contract.

That would mean waiting until January, so Kalshi adds a faster route: the market "is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organisations project the winner". In practice, most races settle on election night or the morning after, once the major news organisations have called them.

Three consequences follow:

• A close race can stay open for days. If the media organisations do not call a race, the market stays open, however lopsided the price.
• A recount does not change the rule. The market still resolves on media consensus or, failing that, on who is sworn in.
• Independents are their own contract. Where a serious independent or third-party candidate runs, Kalshi lists them separately, and the party contracts do not cover them.

How Kalshi settles chamber control

The Senate control market resolves Yes for a party "if the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026" (and likewise for Republicans). It "may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control". If that never happens, "victory will be determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2027."

The president pro tempore is elected by the majority party, so this fallback picks the party that actually organises the chamber, whatever happens with individual seats, independents or party switchers.

The seat-count markets, which ask how many seats each party will hold, wait for that date as well: they settle on 1 February 2027, not on election night.

How Polymarket settles race markets

Polymarket's race markets resolve "according to the winner of the 2026 midterm" election in each state, "inclusive of any run-offs". The resolution source is spelled out:

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

So Polymarket needs three specific organisations to agree. If one of them holds back, the market waits, possibly until the state certifies its results weeks later.

Candidates are named for convenience. If a party replaces its nominee before Election Day, the contract follows the new nominee. Independents are not covered by the party contracts even if they caucus with a party.

How Polymarket settles chamber control

Polymarket's Senate control market resolves to "the party that wins control of the United States Senate", defined as a majority of voting seats. If no party has a majority, control goes to the party with half the seats and the Vice Presidency. If it is still ambiguous, the market looks to the party of "the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election".

The rules also say which seats count: all regular and special Senate elections scheduled for November 2026 as of 31 October, with runoffs deciding their seats even if they take place later.

Disputes on Polymarket

Polymarket proposes a resolution and gives the market a window in which anyone can dispute it. Disputes are settled through the UMA optimistic oracle, where token holders vote. Most election markets resolve without a dispute, but a contested result can add days. Our UMA oracle guide explains the process.

Recounts, runoffs and legal challenges

• Recounts. States have their own rules. Some order automatic recounts when the margin is below a threshold; others have no formal recount process at all. A recount rarely changes who won, but it can delay a call and therefore a payout.
• Runoffs. Some states, notably Georgia, require a majority to win. If nobody passes 50%, there is a runoff weeks later. Polymarket's race markets include runoffs explicitly. Kalshi's resolve to whoever is sworn in, which also covers a runoff winner.
• Legal challenges. A lawsuit over ballots can push back certification. Polymarket's fallback is certification; Kalshi's is the sworn-in result. Either way, the market waits.
• Mailed ballots. Some states accept mailed ballots for days after Election Day if they were postmarked in time. In a close race, the media will not call it until those ballots are counted.

A worked example

Suppose a Senate race is close. At 11 p.m. ET, AP and NBC project the Democrat as the winner. Fox News holds back until the next morning because a large batch of mail ballots is still to be counted.

• On Kalshi, the market can be determined once a consensus of media organisations has called the race. If Kalshi judges that consensus reached after the AP and NBC calls, the market closes and settles that night.
• On Polymarket, the market needs all three of AP, Fox News and NBC. It stays open until Fox calls the race the next morning, or until certification if Fox never does.

Same race, same winner, different settlement times, and the gap can run from hours to weeks. If you hold the contract on Polymarket, your money is tied up longer, which is one reason prices on the two platforms can differ slightly late on election night.

The seat-count markets in detail

Kalshi's markets on how many Senate and House seats each party will hold do not settle on election night, even when the answer is obvious. They count the seats each party holds on 1 February 2027, after the new Congress has been sworn in and any late races, recounts and runoffs are finished. That makes them a cleaner measure of the final result, and a slower one to pay out.

Key terms

• Media call (projection): a news organisation's announcement that a candidate has won, based on its own analysis of the votes counted.
• Certification: the official confirmation of results by state election officials, usually days or weeks after Election Day.
• Canvass: the process of checking and totalling the official count before certification.
• Provisional (affidavit) ballot: a ballot cast when a voter's eligibility needs checking; it is counted later if the voter qualifies.
• Runoff: a second election between the top candidates when nobody wins the required share of the vote.
• Sworn in: the moment a winner formally takes office, the final test in Kalshi's race-market rules.

When does the money arrive?

Once a market is determined, payment follows quickly. On Kalshi, winning contracts pay $1 each and the money appears in your account balance after settlement; there is no fee at settlement (Kalshi fees). On Polymarket US, winning shares are likewise worth $1.

Withdrawing that money to your bank is a separate step with its own timing (withdrawals).

Why prices sit at 97% for days

When a race is effectively over but not called, prices often sit at 95–99% instead of 100%. That gap is not doubt about who won. It is:

• the cost of waiting: money tied up in a contract earns nothing until it settles;
• tail risk: a counting error, a late batch of ballots or a court ruling;
• rule risk: the small chance the market resolves differently from the obvious outcome, for example if a winner dies or switches party before taking office.

That is why many traders sell near-certain contracts rather than holding them to settlement.

A checklist before you trade an election market

1. Read the rules on the market page. Check the resolution source, the fallback and the dates.
2. Check what counts as a party. Independents and third parties are usually separate contracts.
3. Know the state's counting timeline. Mail ballot deadlines and recount rules vary.
4. Plan your exit. Decide whether you will hold to settlement or sell when the price is high.
5. Compare platforms. The same outcome can settle at different times on Kalshi and Polymarket, which affects how long your money is tied up.

FAQ

Does a market pay out when a TV network calls the race? Not on one call alone. Kalshi needs a consensus of media organisations; Polymarket needs AP, Fox News and NBC to agree.

What if the media never call a race? Kalshi waits for the candidate to be sworn in; Polymarket waits for official certification.

How is Senate control settled? On media calls if possible. Otherwise Kalshi uses the party of the president pro tempore on 1 February 2027, and Polymarket uses seat counts, the Vice President's party for a tie, then the first president pro tempore.

Can I sell before settlement? Yes, at any time while the market is open.

Where are the rules? On each market's page. Our general guide to how Kalshi and Polymarket markets resolve covers non-election markets too.

Rules quoted from the 2026 midterm markets on Kalshi and Polymarket as published before Election Day. Always check the current rules on the market page before trading. Not investment advice.