Trump impeachment odds: markets give 71% that the new Democratic House impeaches him before 2029, 21% that he is removed

Two days after Democrats won the House, prediction markets see an impeachment of President Donald Trump as more likely than not. At noon ET on 5 November 2026, Kalshi priced a House vote to impeach Trump before his term ends on 20 January 2029 at about 71%. Conviction and removal by the Senate stayed far less likely, at about 21%.

Here is what the markets say, when traders expect a vote, why the gap between impeachment and removal is so wide, and how these contracts work.

Trump impeachment odds today

A 71% price means traders think it is likely, but far from certain, that the House will impeach Trump for a third time. He was impeached twice in his first term, in 2019 and 2021, and acquitted by the Senate both times.

How the midterms moved the market

Source: Kalshi, closing prices.

The market had priced a Democratic House for months, so most of the impeachment premium was already there. On the morning after the election, prices spiked: the full-term contract touched 76% and removal 27%. By Thursday they had fallen back close to their pre-election levels. Traders appear to have bought the news, then reconsidered how quickly a new majority will act.

When would the House vote?

The new Congress is sworn in on 3 January 2027. Until then the Republican majority elected in 2024 controls the House, so a vote before January is very unlikely. Kalshi prices an impeachment before 1 January 2027 at about 1.4%.

After that, the market lays out a timeline:

The shape says traders expect a process, not a snap vote. A new majority needs time to organise committees, hire staff and issue subpoenas before it can build a case, and any investigation is likely to face court fights over documents and testimony. The chance of an impeachment by June 2027 is about 42%, crossing 50% only by August 2027. That fits how impeachments usually work: committee investigations, hearings and a vote on articles take months.

Prices for nearby dates are not perfectly smooth, and should be read as a rough schedule rather than a precise forecast. Each date is a separate contract with its own traders, and smaller contracts can sit a few points out of line with their neighbours.

A short history of presidential impeachment

The House has impeached a president four times, and the Senate has never removed one.

Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 before the full House voted on articles of impeachment. Each of the four impeachments that went to a vote was carried by the party controlling the House; none produced the two-thirds Senate majority needed to convict.

Related markets

Kalshi lists several smaller markets around the same question:

• How many times Trump is impeached in his second term, with contracts for at least one, two and three impeachments.
• How many articles of impeachment the House adopts.
• How many House Republicans vote to impeach.
• Whether Trump is impeached and removed, the removal contract discussed above.

These trade far less than the main contracts, so their prices can sit out of line with the main market for hours. They are useful for expressing a specific view, for example that an impeachment would be narrow and partisan, but come with wide spreads.

How an impeachment works

1. Investigation. House committees, usually the Judiciary Committee, investigate and hold hearings.
2. Articles of impeachment. The Judiciary Committee drafts and votes on articles, the formal charges.
3. House vote. The full House votes on each article. A simple majority of those voting impeaches the president.
4. Senate trial. The Senate holds a trial with the Chief Justice of the United States presiding. House members act as prosecutors.
5. Senate vote. Conviction on any article requires two-thirds of senators present. A conviction removes the president from office; the Senate can then vote by simple majority to bar him from future office.

Kalshi's main impeachment contracts resolve at step 3. The removal contract needs step 5.

Why removal is much less likely

Impeachment needs a simple majority of the House. Removal needs a two-thirds vote of the senators present in the Senate's trial: 67 votes if all 100 senators vote.

After Tuesday, Democrats and the independents who caucus with them will hold at least 54 Senate seats, and possibly 56 if they win the uncalled races in Mississippi and Alaska. Even at 56, a conviction would need at least 11 Republican senators. No president has ever been removed by the Senate.

That is why the removal market sits around 21% while impeachment is above 70%. Traders are effectively saying: a Democratic House may well impeach, but conviction depends on Republican senators breaking with the president in large numbers, and that has not happened in any previous impeachment trial.

The Senate math in detail

Assumes all 100 senators vote and every Democrat and independent who caucuses with them votes to convict.

Even the best case for Democrats needs a quarter of Republican senators. In Trump's 2021 trial, seven Republican senators voted to convict, the most ever from a president's own party, and it was still ten votes short.

The fine print

How these contracts settle matters as much as the price:

• The full-term contract resolves Yes if the House passes articles of impeachment against the President after the contract was issued and before 20 January 2029. A vote by the House is enough; a Senate trial is not needed.
• The dated contracts work the same way but expire on earlier dates. If you think a vote is likely but slow, the later dates are the ones to look at.
• The removal contract needs both an impeachment and a Senate conviction before 20 January 2029.
• Kalshi also lists related markets: how many times Trump is impeached in his second term, how many articles of impeachment are adopted, and how many House Republicans vote to impeach. They are thinly traded, so their prices can jump on small orders.

Live prices are on our pages for the House impeachment market, the full-term contract and the removal market.

How to think about the price

• The House majority is not the only factor. Democratic leaders decide whether to pursue impeachment, and the size and unity of the new majority will matter. A narrow or divided caucus could hold back.
• Events drive these markets. Investigations, court rulings and the president's approval rating (Trump approval odds) can all move prices.
• Long-dated money is tied up. A contract bought now on the full-term market may not settle for more than two years. That cost of waiting is part of why such prices rarely go above 80–90% even when an outcome looks likely.

What would change the odds

• The new majority's priorities. Democratic leaders will decide whether impeachment is a priority or a distraction from legislation. Statements from the incoming Speaker and committee chairs in December and January will move these markets.
• Investigations. A Democratic House gains subpoena power. If committee investigations produce new evidence, the timing contracts for spring and summer 2027 are the ones likely to react first.
• Public opinion. A sharp fall in the president's approval rating tends to make impeachment more likely and removal a little less unlikely.
• The margin. The final size of the House majority matters. A large majority gives leaders room to lose a few votes; a narrow one makes them cautious.

How to trade it

Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and available in most states (is Kalshi legal?). A contract on the full-term impeachment market costs about 71 cents and pays $1 if the House impeaches Trump before 20 January 2029.

• Think about time. If you buy now, your money may be tied up until 2029. The dated contracts let you take a view on timing instead: if you expect a vote in spring 2027, the April, May and June contracts are cheaper ways to express it.
• Watch the spread. The dated contracts are thinly traded compared with the full-term market. Use limit orders.
• Check the rules. Each contract's resolution rules are on its market page. Read them before you trade, especially the dates, because a vote one day after a contract's deadline does not count.
• Removal is a separate bet. A view that impeachment is likely but conviction is not can be expressed by buying the impeachment contract and selling, or avoiding, the removal contract.

FAQ

Will Trump be impeached again? Kalshi gives about a 71% chance that the House impeaches him before his term ends, as of 5 November 2026.

When could it happen? Not before the new Congress meets on 3 January 2027. The market puts the chance of a vote by mid-2027 at about 42%.

Could Trump be removed from office? Only if two-thirds of the Senate votes to convict. Kalshi prices that at about 21%.

Why is impeachment more likely than removal? Impeachment needs a simple House majority, which Democrats now have. Removal needs two-thirds of the Senate, which would require at least 11 Republican senators to vote to convict.

How did the midterms change the odds? The House result pushed the full-term price to 76% on Wednesday morning before it settled back near 71%.

For the election that set this up, see Democrats win the Senate and the House.

Prices as of noon ET on 5 November 2026. Not investment advice.