Midterms eve: Kalshi gives Democrats 74% for the Senate, their best price since the market opened, and 94% for the House
A day before the 3 November vote, Kalshi traders put Democratic control of the Senate at 74%, the party’s highest price since the market opened, and the House at about 94%. What moved the odds, the races that decide the Senate, the seat-count markets and what to watch on Tuesday night.
In this article
Prediction markets go into Election Day with Democrats favoured to win both chambers of Congress. On Monday 2 November 2026, the day before the midterms, Kalshi traders priced a Democratic Senate at 74%, which CNBC reported was the highest price for the party since the market opened. The House was at about 94%.
That is a big change from the summer. As recently as the end of August the Senate market still leaned Republican. Here is where the odds stand on the eve of the vote, what moved them, and which races will settle the question on Tuesday night.
The odds at a glance
Source: Kalshi market data: CONTROLS-2026, CONTROLH-2026, KXDSENATESEATS-27, KXDHOUSESEATS-27, hourly candles
A price of 74 cents means traders see roughly a three-in-four chance that Democrats win the Senate. It also means a one-in-four chance that they do not. The House price is more lopsided: 93.8 cents leaves Republicans about a 6% chance of keeping their majority.
You can follow both markets live on our pages for Senate control and House control on Kalshi, and the matching Polymarket markets for the Senate and the House.
What moved the Senate market
CNBC reported on Monday that the jump came after a New York Times/Siena poll published on Sunday showed Democrats leading in several battleground states. In the 24 hours before CNBC's report:
- Texas: Kalshi's price for a James Talarico win rose to 74%, up from 68.4%.
- Iowa: Polymarket's price for the Democrat reached 50%, up from 42%.
- Kansas: the market on Adam Hamilton (D) against Senator Roger Marshall (R) moved to 63%, up from 52%.
The longer story is a steady drift. Kalshi's Senate market spent most of the spring and summer below 50%. Democrats crossed into favourite territory in mid-September and kept climbing through October.
Source: Kalshi market data, CONTROLS-2026 and CONTROLH-2026, daily and hourly candles
Show the dataHide the data
| Senate | House | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 May | 44% | 77% |
| 30 Jun | 41% | 81% |
| 31 Jul | 47% | 83% |
| 31 Aug | 49% | 85% |
| 14 Sep | 52% | 86% |
| 30 Sep | 63% | 91.5% |
| 14 Oct | 61% | 90.2% |
| 27 Oct | 64% | 90.8% |
| 30 Oct | 71% | 93.6% |
| 1 Nov | 73% | 93.7% |
| 2 Nov | 74% | 93.8% |
The House market tells a quieter story. Democrats have been favourites all year, and the price has crept from the high 70s in May to the low 90s since late September. The Senate is where the movement has been.
The Senate math
Democrats and the independents who caucus with them hold 47 of the 100 seats. Of the 35 seats on the ballot, 13 are held by Democrats and 22 by Republicans, so Democrats keep 34 seats that are not up this year. To control the chamber they need 51, because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties for the Republicans.
Kalshi lists 34 of the 35 races. Adding up the Democratic price in each one gives an expected total of about 52.4 seats on Monday afternoon. That is a rough guide, not a forecast: races are not independent, and a national swing tends to move them together.
The Senate seat-count market spreads the same view across outcomes:
| Democratic seats after the midterms | Kalshi price, 2 Nov, 4 p.m. ET |
|---|---|
| Above 52 | 54% |
| 52 | 17% |
| 51 | 7.3% |
| 50 | 6.9% |
| 49 | 5.2% |
| 48 | 4.3% |
| 47 | 4.6% |
| 46 or fewer | 4.5% |
Source: Kalshi, KXDSENATESEATS-27. Prices of separate outcomes do not add up to exactly 100%.
The biggest single bucket is "above 52", at 54%. Traders are not just betting that Democrats scrape to 51; most of the money says they will clear it with room to spare. Our seat-count market page shows the live prices.
The races that decide it
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Kalshi, Democrat wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | 97.1% |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | 97.1% |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu | 94.3% |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | 92.1% |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | 78% |
| Texas | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | 74% |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | 72% |
| Alaska | Democratic nominee | Dan Sullivan | 71% |
| Ohio (special) | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | 70% |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | 64% |
| Iowa | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | 51% |
| South Carolina | Annie Andrews | Darline Graham | 33% |
| Mississippi | Scott Colom | Cindy Hyde-Smith | 17% |
| Florida (special) | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | 15% |
Source: Kalshi market data, 4 p.m. ET on 2 November 2026. Candidate names as listed on Kalshi's markets.
Two things stand out.
Democrats do not need the long shots. North Carolina is the only Republican-held seat that traders treat as close to a sure pickup. If Democrats hold everything they are favoured to hold, North Carolina takes them to 47. From there they need four more out of Michigan (a seat they already hold), Texas, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Kansas and Iowa, all priced between 51% and 78%.
Texas carries the most money. The Texas Senate market is the most traded race on Kalshi this cycle by a wide margin. Our pages on the Texas Senate race, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa and Alaska go through each contest.
Governors
Thirty-six states elect a governor on Tuesday. Most are not competitive, but a few carry real money.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Kalshi, Democrat wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson | John James | 95% |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs | Andy Biggs | 92.7% |
| Iowa | Rob Sand | Zach Lahn | 87% |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley | Tom Tiffany | 84% |
| Ohio | Amy Acton | Vivek Ramaswamy | 83% |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek | Christine Drazan | 81% |
| Nevada | Aaron Ford | Joe Lombardo | 74% |
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms | Rick Jackson | 69% |
| Texas | Gina Hinojosa | Greg Abbott | 39% |
| Florida | David Jolly | Byron Donalds | 36% |
| Vermont | Amanda Janoo | Phil Scott | 32% |
Source: Kalshi market data, 4 p.m. ET on 2 November 2026.
The Texas governor's race is the second most traded race on Kalshi after the Texas Senate seat. Greg Abbott is favoured to win a fourth term, but at 61% for the incumbent the market is far from certain. We look at it in detail in our Texas governor race odds.
What to watch on Tuesday night
The first polls close at 6 p.m. ET in the eastern parts of Indiana and Kentucky. The first Senate signals come at 7 p.m. (Georgia, South Carolina) and 7:30 p.m. (North Carolina, Ohio). Michigan, Texas and Kansas finish closing at 9 p.m. ET, Iowa at the same time. Alaska is last, at 1 a.m. ET on Wednesday. Our Election Day 2026 guide has the full schedule, and our election-night guide explains how to read the markets as votes come in.
A few things are worth knowing before you watch the prices move:
- Markets move before the networks call races. Traders react to early returns, county by county. A price can go from 70% to 95% long before a media call.
- Not every race is settled on the night. Kalshi resolves race markets early only once a consensus of media organisations has projected a winner. Close races can stay open for days. Our guide to how Kalshi and Polymarket markets resolve explains the rules.
- Spreads widen in fast markets. In a busy hour the gap between the bid and the ask can jump. A limit order protects you from paying far more than the last trade.
How the two exchanges compare
Polymarket's prices on Monday afternoon told almost the same story, with Democrats a little stronger in the chamber markets.
| Market | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Senate: Democrats win | 74% | 76.5% |
| House: Democrats win | 93.8% | 95.5% |
| Texas Senate: Talarico | 74% | 75.5% |
| Michigan Senate: El-Sayed | 78% | 78.5% |
| Maine Senate: Jackson | 72% | 73.5% |
| Ohio Senate: Brown | 70% | 72.5% |
| Kansas Senate: Hamilton | 64% | 61.5% |
| Iowa Senate: Turek | 51% | 49.5% |
| South Carolina Senate: Andrews | 33% | 31.5% |
| Texas governor: Hinojosa | 39% | 38.5% |
| Florida governor: Jolly | 36% | 36.5% |
Prices at 4 p.m. ET on 2 November 2026. Sources: Kalshi and Polymarket public market data.
Across the competitive races, the two platforms were typically within 1.5 points of each other, and never more than about three points apart. When the same outcome trades at very different prices on two regulated exchanges, traders who hold accounts on both buy the cheap side and sell the dear one, which pulls the prices together. Our study of price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket found the same pattern across hundreds of outcomes.
The direction of the small gaps is worth a glance. Polymarket was slightly more bullish on Democrats in the two chamber markets and in Texas, Maine and Ohio; Kalshi was slightly more bullish in Kansas and Iowa. None of these differences is large enough to say one exchange "knows" something the other does not.
The caveat
A 74% favourite loses about one time in four. Prediction markets were broadly right about the 2024 presidential race, but no price is a promise. Our accuracy study looked at thousands of resolved markets: well-calibrated on average, with misses that are real.
For the background on how this market got here, see our coverage from one week out and our 2026 midterm predictions.
FAQ
Who is favoured to win the Senate? Democrats, at 74% on Kalshi and 76.5% on Polymarket at 4 p.m. ET on 2 November 2026.
Who is favoured to win the House? Democrats, at about 94% on Kalshi and 95.5% on Polymarket.
How many Senate seats do the markets expect Democrats to win? Adding up the race-by-race prices gives about 52 seats. Kalshi's seat-count market makes "more than 52" the single most likely outcome, at 54%.
What is the closest Senate race? Iowa, where Kalshi priced the Democrat Josh Turek at 51% and Polymarket at 49.5%.
When will we know the result? Most races are usually called on election night, but close ones can take days, especially in states that count mailed ballots after Election Day.
Market prices change constantly; figures here are as of 4 p.m. ET on 2 November 2026. Sources: CNBC (2 November 2026); Kalshi public market data. Not investment advice.
