Texas governor race odds: Greg Abbott is a 61% favourite over Gina Hinojosa on the eve of the vote
Prediction markets give Governor Greg Abbott about a 61% chance of a fourth term against Democrat Gina Hinojosa, while the polls show a race within three points. Kalshi and Polymarket prices on 2 November, how they moved in October, the latest polls, the split with the Senate race and what to watch on election night.
In this article
- Texas governor odds today
- How the odds moved in October
- Texas governor race at a glance
- What the polls say
- Why the market favours Abbott when the polls are tied
- Thirty-six years of Republican governors
- The split with the Senate race
- What to watch on election night
- What could move the price before the polls close
- How to trade it
- FAQ
Greg Abbott goes into Election Day as the favourite, but not by much. At 4 p.m. ET on 2 November 2026, Kalshi priced the Texas governor's race at 61% for Abbott and 39% for the Democrat, state Representative Gina Hinojosa. Polymarket had Hinojosa at 38.5%. That makes the race the most competitive governor's contest in Texas in decades by market price, and the second most traded race of the midterms on Kalshi, after the Texas Senate seat.
Here is what the markets say, how the odds moved in October, what the polls show and why traders give Abbott the edge when the polls are close.
Texas governor odds today
| Candidate | Party | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Abbott | Republican | 61% | 61.5% |
| Gina Hinojosa | Democrat | 39% | 38.5% |
Prices at 4 p.m. ET on 2 November 2026. Sources: Kalshi (GOVPARTYTX-26), Polymarket (Texas Governor Election Winner).
The two exchanges agree to within half a point, which is a sign that the price is well supported by trading on both sides. That is typical for a heavily traded race: when prices drift apart, traders who use both platforms buy the cheaper side and sell the dearer one until the gap closes. Our page on the Kalshi market and the Polymarket market show live prices.
A 39% price means the market sees roughly a two-in-five chance that Hinojosa wins, and a three-in-five chance that Abbott does. Put differently, Abbott is favoured but would lose this race about four times in ten. That is a long way from a sure thing for the incumbent. In a state where Democrats have not won a governor's race since 1990, it is a remarkable price.
How the odds moved in October
Source: Kalshi (GOVPARTYTX-26-D) daily and hourly candles; Polymarket price history
Show the dataHide the data
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Oct | 26% | 26% |
| 15 Oct | 26% | 22.5% |
| 22 Oct | 33% | 31% |
| 29 Oct | 38% | 35.5% |
| 30 Oct | 37% | 37.5% |
| 31 Oct | 34% | 34.5% |
| 1 Nov | 41% | 33.5% |
| 2 Nov | 39% | 38.5% |
Hinojosa started October at 21% on Kalshi, roughly a one-in-five shot. Her price climbed in two steps. The first came in the second week of the month, to 26%. The second came in the last ten days, when it rose from 26% to 38% and briefly touched 41% at the close on 1 November.
Kalshi's market traded about 4 million contracts in October and about a million more on 1–2 November. Interest has picked up as the race tightened.
Texas governor race at a glance
Source: Kalshi market data; Texas Southern University poll (21–25 October 2026)
What the polls say
The polls have been close for months, which is why the market price has risen.
| Poll | Field dates | Sample | Abbott | Hinojosa |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern University | 21–25 Oct | 2,000 likely voters, ±2.19 | 50% | 47% |
| ReconMR | 5–8 Oct | 617 likely voters, ±4.4 | 48% | 47% |
| YouGov | 28 Sep–5 Oct | 3,625 likely voters, ±3 | 47% | 48% |
| ReconMR | September | likely voters | 45% | 49% |
Sources: FOX 7 Austin (29 October 2026) for the Texas Southern University poll; Newsweek (October 2026) for ReconMR and YouGov.
A few details from the polls matter for reading the market:
- The latest poll has Abbott up three. The Texas Southern University survey of 2,000 likely voters found Abbott at about 50% and Hinojosa at 47%, with 1% unsure. Independents broke for Hinojosa by 11 points.
- The trend in October favoured Abbott, then flattened. ReconMR had Hinojosa ahead by four in September and Abbott ahead by one in early October. Its analyst warned against reading too much into the shift.
- Hinojosa is still less well known. In ReconMR's October poll, 20% of voters said they did not know enough about her to have an opinion. That leaves room for movement in either direction.
Why the market favours Abbott when the polls are tied
If the polls show a race within three points, why do traders give Abbott about 61%?
- A three-point lead is still a lead. If the polling average has Abbott ahead by one to three points, a modest favourite is exactly what you would expect. A 61–39 price is consistent with a narrow lead and a lot of uncertainty.
- Incumbency and history. Abbott has won three governor's races. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas for decades. Traders price in the possibility that undecided voters in a Republican-leaning state break toward the familiar name.
- Polling error can go either way. Markets do not take polls at face value. A price below 70% is the market saying it expects the result to land near the polls but does not know on which side.
Thirty-six years of Republican governors
Texas last elected a Democratic governor in 1990, when Ann Richards won. George W. Bush beat her in 1994, and Republicans have held the office ever since: Bush, Rick Perry, who served from 2000 to 2015, and Abbott, first elected in 2014.
Abbott is now seeking a fourth term, which would extend one of the longest runs of any current governor. His three previous wins were comfortable, which is part of why the market resisted pricing Hinojosa above 30% until late October.
What has changed this year is the national environment. Prediction markets give Democrats about a three-in-four chance of winning the Senate and better than nine-in-ten for the House. When a national wave is expected, traders mark up Democrats in every competitive race, including ones that would normally be out of reach. Texas is the clearest example.
The split with the Senate race
The most striking thing about Texas is the gap between its two big races. On the same ballot, Kalshi gives the Democrat James Talarico a 74% chance of beating Attorney General Ken Paxton for the Senate. That is 35 points more than Hinojosa's chance of beating Abbott.
The polls point the same way. ReconMR's October survey had Talarico ahead of Paxton 48–44 while Abbott led Hinojosa 48–47. In other words, some voters say they will back Talarico for the Senate and Abbott for governor. Traders are betting that split-ticket voting holds on Tuesday.
That makes the two markets an interesting pair. If you think the split is overstated, the cheap side is Hinojosa. If you think Abbott runs well ahead of Paxton, the governor's market is fairly priced and the Senate market is where the risk lies. Our Texas Senate race odds go through that contest in detail.
What to watch on election night
- Poll closing times. Most of Texas closes at 8 p.m. ET (7 p.m. Central). The El Paso area, on Mountain Time, closes an hour later, at 9 p.m. ET. Early votes are usually reported first, so the first numbers can look better for one party than the final count.
- The big urban counties. Harris (Houston), Dallas, Bexar (San Antonio) and Travis (Austin) decide how large the Democratic margin is. Tarrant County (Fort Worth) is the closest of the big counties to a bellwether.
- The Latino vote. The Texas Southern University poll found most Latino voters backing Hinojosa. How the Rio Grande Valley votes after its swing toward Republicans in 2024 will shape the result.
- Market moves before the call. Prices will react to county results long before a media call. A sudden jump in Hinojosa's price in the first hour of results would be a signal worth watching.
Our Election Day 2026 guide has the full schedule and our election-night guide explains how to read fast-moving prices.
What could move the price before the polls close
- Late polls. A new public poll showing Hinojosa ahead would likely push her price above 40%; one with Abbott ahead by five or more would push it back toward 30%.
- Early-vote data. Analysts publish turnout breakdowns by county and age. Strong turnout in Harris, Dallas and Travis counties tends to help Democrats; strong turnout in suburban and rural counties tends to help Republicans.
- Movement in the national markets. If the Senate control price rises on Election Day, expect Hinojosa's price to drift up with it, and the reverse if it falls.
- The Senate race. The two Texas markets move together. A late swing toward Talarico is likely to pull Hinojosa up as well, though by less.
How to trade it
Kalshi and Polymarket US are regulated by the CFTC and available in Texas: see is Kalshi legal in Texas? and is Polymarket legal in Texas?. A contract on Hinojosa costs about 39 cents and pays $1 if she wins; a contract on Abbott costs about 61 cents. Both platforms charge trading fees, which our fee comparison explains.
Two practical points for election week:
- Use limit orders. Prices can move several cents in seconds once results arrive. A limit order sets the most you will pay.
- Settlement takes time. Kalshi's governor markets resolve to the party of the candidate sworn in for the next term, with an early determination once a consensus of media organisations calls the race. Our guide to how Kalshi and Polymarket markets resolve explains the rules.
FAQ
Who is favoured to win the Texas governor's race? Greg Abbott, at about 61% on both Kalshi and Polymarket on 2 November 2026.
When did a Democrat last win the Texas governorship? In 1990.
What do the polls say? The race is close: the most recent survey, from Texas Southern University, had Abbott ahead 50–47 among likely voters.
How does the governor's race compare with the Senate race? Kalshi gives the Democrat a 74% chance in the Senate race and 39% in the governor's race, a sign traders expect some voters to split their tickets.
When will the result be known? Texas counts quickly. In a clear race a winner is usually projected on election night; a race within a point or two can take longer while mail and provisional ballots are counted.
What would a Hinojosa win mean? She would be the first Democrat elected governor of Texas since 1990 and would end a Republican hold on the office that began in 1995.
Is the market the same on Kalshi and Polymarket? Almost: 39% for Hinojosa on Kalshi and 38.5% on Polymarket.
Where can I follow the odds live? On our governors page and the Kalshi and Polymarket market pages.
Prices as of 4 p.m. ET on 2 November 2026. Market prices are not forecasts of certainty; they reflect what traders are willing to pay. Not investment advice.
