Who will win the House?
Live odds on control of the House of Representatives and the seat count, from Polymarket and Kalshi.
218 seats for a majority · odds updated 1 h ago
Which party wins the House
90% Democrats
Democratic chance on Polymarket, last 30 days
Balance of power
Who controls the Senate and the House after the election
- Democrats win both61% · 63% / 60%
- R Senate, D House28% · 28% / 29%
- D Senate, R House<1% · <1% / <1%
- Republicans win both10% · 9% / 11%
Average of Polymarket and Kalshi; the pair after the dot is Polymarket / Kalshi.
How many Republican seats?
Each bar is the chance Republicans end up with that many House seats.
Republican House seats
PolymarketRepublican House seats
KalshiWhy the House and Senate odds differ
The House map is decided across hundreds of districts, so national mood matters most; the Senate turns on a few states, where candidates and local politics weigh more. That is why markets can be confident about one chamber and split on the other. See the state-by-state picture on the Senate page.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the House in 2026?
Prediction markets make Democrats the favourite, with about a 90% chance of winning the majority (Polymarket 91%, Kalshi 89% for Democrats).
How many seats are needed for a House majority?
All 435 seats are on the ballot every two years; 218 is a majority. Republicans go into the election with a narrow majority, so a small net shift decides control.
What is the balance of power market?
It asks which combination of Senate and House control comes out of the election: Democrats win both, Republicans win both, or each party takes one chamber. It shows how traders think the two chambers are linked.
How do House control markets resolve?
They settle on which party holds a majority when the new Congress is seated in January 2027, following each market’s rules. Close races can take days or weeks to be called.