How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 23:03 UTCCloses 1 Dec 2026 (in 19 days)
Most likely: 4.86% or above
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
4.86% or above | 88% | — |
4.88% or above | 65% | — |
4.89% or above | 62% | — |
4.9% or above | 57% | — |
4.92% or above | 52% | — |
4.93% or above | 48% | — |
4.87% or above | 46% | — |
4.94% or above | 45% | — |
How this market resolves
If the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury is above 4.85% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price 4.86% or above as the most likely outcome at 88% (as of 12 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.