California permitted housing units in 2026
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 18:20 UTCCloses 27 Jan 2027 (in 3 mo)
Most likely: Above 100,000
All outcomes (6)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above 100,000 | 97% | — |
Above 105,000 | 90% | — |
Above 110,000 | 60% | — |
Above 115,000 | 19% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Above 120,000 | 6% | — |
Above 125,000 | 4% | — |
How this market resolves
If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 100,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “California permitted housing units in 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above 100,000 as the most likely outcome at 97% (as of 21 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 27 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.